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December 10, 2009

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January, 2010

H. L. Quist's
Contrarian Market View
Newsletter

Introduction

A CONTRARIAN is someone who looks at things differently than the majority of people. That definition fits H. L. Quist and CMV perfectly. In market parlance when 80 to 90% of investors are certain that the market is going to continue upward, the contrarian heads the other direction. Conversely, when the news is about as bad as it can get, the true contrarian is usually on the ground floor buying. That's what you can expect from H. L. Quist's Contrarian Market View (CMV).

CMV is not a market timer, but we don't want to be 100% exposed at a major turn in the market. In the past ten years there were two occasions to be defensive, significantly change the asset allocation, or be out of the market altogether.

March 2000 to October 2002
July 2007 to April 2009

The results, in the above case, were significant as most participants are painfully aware (Pages 68 - 75 How to Profit From The Coming Inflationary Boom and Avoid the Next Crash, by H. L. Quist). CMV anticipates that market volatility will continue in the future and our form of Active Management will serve the investor well.

In most cases, CMV anticipates that most readers will manage their own assets. In addition, most readers/investors will use CMV's specific recommendations to compliment their existing portfolios according to their own risk tolerance, time horizon and suitability. The recommendations included in this newsletter are principally aggressive and speculative in nature and should be used to offset or compliment the investor's complete portfolio. When determining what percentages should be in various asset classes, the reader/investor should list ALL of their assets such as cash in all accounts, life insurance and annuities, IRAs, 401Ks, commodity accounts, investment real estate, etc. The principal point of this exercise is that most advisors totally ignored alternative investments such as gold, oil, commodities etc. in past allocation of assets and not only failed to realize the gains these assets provided in the past 10 years, but they didn't have these assets to offset the losses in the .com bubble bust and the sub-prime market meltdown. Going forward Buy and Hold is not a prudent investment strategy.

Here is an example:

Risk Tolerance -- % Allocated to CMV
Conservative -- 10%
Moderate -- 15%
Aggressive -- 30%
Speculative -- 50%

The above is simply an example of how the reader/investor may want to use this newsletter and the recommended portfolio. Please consult with your adviser and conduct additional research on your own.

Market Overview

As the year 2010 begins, not since the Great Depression or World War II perhaps, is there more political, social and economic uncertainty in America. CMV will attempt to articulate the Macro Events that form the basis for making the specific (Micro) investment recommendations listed below:

Keynesian Economics
The Obama Administration is ideologically committed to the theory that through central planning of the economy and creation of unprecedented amounts of new debt, the government can increase the GDP and put people back to work. As history clearly reminds us, bureaucratic intrusion into free enterprise and increased taxation, will deter the expansion of commerce and not promote more jobs. Employers, not knowing what to expect in potential health care costs, bank and equity financing and demand for their goods will, in most cases, do nothing until these initiatives become clear. The fourth quarter GDP of 2.5% could be an illusion created by the $787 billion stimulus plan that was rear-end loaded to carry over to 2010 for the mid-term elections.

The Fed and The FDIC
The Fed Funds rate is basically zero and the Fed will have to raise rates soon to avoid another speculative bubble. An unexpected 1.45% rise in the USD index on December 4, 2009 due to a questionable jobs report resulted in a sell-off of gold and commodities and a concern that equities would be adversely effected by rising interest rates. The FDIC is broke and is assessing its member banks three years deposit insurance premiums in advance which will further reduce lending and close many more banks. The USD has lost about 18% against a basket of foreign currencies in 2009. That's market devaluation. CMV expects the possibility of a Formal USD devaluation that could come at any time possibly as a result of a downgrade of US Treasury Debt by the rating agencies.






Note: Subscribe to this blog for in-depth updates on the above and other topics.

Inflation
Is a monetary phenomenon. The US Treasury has to rollover $2 trillion in short-term debt in 2010 plus an additional $1.5 trillion in deficit spending. Where will the money come from at these low rates? Printing USD (monetization) is highly inflationary. An unexpected rise in food prices in the first half of 2010 could be the visible trigger for inflation that's already cooked into the system.

Notes To Portfolio

1. Cash & Fixed Income
Given existing yields on money market funds, CDs and US Bonds, CMV sees much better opportunities offshore. _________ Total Return Fund is one of the best managed US Bond funds. The total return (dividend plus capital gains) of 14% last year will be very difficult to match in an increasing interest rate environment but if anyone can do it,_________ can. Some money market funds should be held in Norwegian krone and Australian dollars which both appreciated almost 20% vs. The USD in 2009. Go to Everbank.com for more information. Investment in Municipal and high-yield junk bonds should be avoided.

2. US Equities
Is the most difficult sector to recommend because of the rumors of a formal USD devaluation and an over-bought US stock market that is losing steam. CMV has listed_________ because of it's dominance in consumer staples in both US and foreign markets. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF_________ is the preferred choice for large cap multi-nationals and the NASDAQ 100 ETF _________ is the best aggressive growth exposure to the large cap technology sector. The _________ Mutual Fund _________ has had exceptional performance during the past 10 years. The fund has appreciated (with dividends reinvested) almost 14% per annum since its inception in November 1999. This compares to a per annum decrease of -1.1% for the S&P 500 Index. CMV anticipates a market correction in this sector at any time. All financial ETFs are not recommended at this time.

3. International Equities
A sector, often referred to as the BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India & China) within the international equity market is enjoying almost explosive growth. CMV is at present limiting its recommendations to two countries in Latin America plus Australia and India. China will soon have to move to curtail unsustainable growth and inflation and CMV will continue to monitor conditions there. Russia is too high risk and volatile for CMV at present. Europe is struggling with non-performing debt and an appreciating EURO and therefore is a wait and see. A formal devaluation of the USD would severely impact Euro land.

4. Hard Assets
If CMV is accurate in its assessment that the US and most of the world is entering a period of competitive currency devaluation and an inflationary cycle, the recommendations listed in Sections 4, 5, 6, 7, and 8 (herein) should out-perform the other three sectors. This trend could change and deflationary forces could emerge. If that occurs CMV will reverse this position. _________ is recommended for both growth and income. _________ is the largest transportation and energy storage company in North America. The stock is up about 40% from it's March 2009 low of $41/share is currently paying a 7.5% dividend. The_________ ADR (Argentina) is a new offering and provides the investor with global exposure to agriculture, oil, timber, water and precious metals much the same as _________. _________ is the US Natural Gas Fund which has declined from about $25/share a year ago to around $9. Natural Gas is a true contrarian play. Oil specific ETF's are _________ (Service) and _________ (Production) and_________, an oil and gas producer, has been a favorite of CMV since oil was $10/BBL about 10 years ago.

5. Precious Metals Group (PMG)
The entire group is principally gold, silver, platinum and palladium. This group has been the beneficiary of explosive growth during the past 10 years due principally to the devaluation of the US dollar and the proliferation of fiat (paper) money worldwide. Gold was at a low of $256/oz 10 years ago. A year ago when the global financial crisis imploded gold (Au) fell from $1,030/oz to $700 /oz in a matter of two months reaching a low of _________ in November 2008. Since that date Au has not only made a steep V correction to its previous high, it exceeded it by 20% closing at $1,226/oz on December 3, 2009. Silver (Ag) somewhat tracks Au but is undervalued. Most investors can't handle the volatility of PMG and consider it "too risky." After the market debacle of 2008, risk should be defined and assessed in new terms which you will learn in CMV.






Of the four ETFs recommended, _________ is a proxy on gold bullion. You trade the ETF as a stock and bullion is held in trust equal in value to all the shares outstanding. The same for silver _________. _________ is the gold miner's index and provides an exposure to publically traded gold mining companies worldwide. _________ provides an exposure to junior miners or small cap and therefore is higher risk. _________ is the_________ Gold &Precious Metals Mutual Fund which, unlike the ETFs, is a fully managed fund of PMG Mining Companies. ETFs trade like a common stock and you can buy and sell anytime. _________ trades are at the Net Asset Value at the end of the trading date. The 3 year return is 12.8%, 5 year 18.5% and 10 year is 16.4%. YTD is 53.4% (10/30/09).

One very important word of Caution. Gold and Silver are treated differently by the IRS tax code. They are considered collectibles and not capital assets and therefore don't qualify for the 15% tax rate on long-term capital gains. Gold and silver bullion and coins and ETFs are taxed a maximum rate of 28%. If held for less than one year, the gain is ordinary income. You should consult your CPA or adviser on this or any tax matter.

The recent correction in December in the PMG was healthy with a rally in the USD inevitable but temporary. Au was up to a new record high in 21 of 24 trading days in the last 30 days (as of the drafting of this newsletter). In CMV's opinion the major move that will potentially propel Au to much higher prices is the prospect of inflation over the next two or three years or even longer. CMV will monitor this situation on an on-going basis. If inflation morphs into hyperinflation the possibility of a 'crack-up boom' or the end of this cycle will require that all positions in PMG be liquidated.

Some investors will and should take possession of their gold investments in kind. PMG coins and bars are highly recommended. Be absolutely certain that you deal with an experienced and reliable dealer and that you have suitable storage for these assets. And, don't divulge your acquisition to anyone except a trusted member of your family. Contact Pat Gorman at Resource Consultants, Inc. (800) 494-4149 or (480) 820-5877.

6. Commodities
_________ is an agribusiness ETF and provides exposure to publically traded companies worldwide that derive at least 50% of their revenues from the business of agriculture. Some of the better known names in the _________ are John Deere, Monsanto, Archer-Daniels-Midland and 43 other companies. CMV will feature the anticipated rise in food and commodity prices in a future issue. Watch the prices of a cup of "java." Coffee could rise from $1.45/lb to $2.00/lb.

7. Real Estate
Is also a true contrarian play. The investor must overlook the fact that 23% of ALL residential mortgages in the US are underwater and 30% to 40% of all loans that are modified default for a second time. Defaults amongst prime borrowers exceeds sub-prime for the first time and is occurring amongst the employed as well as unemployed. Fannie Mae (FNM), Freddie Mac (FRE) and FHA are providing 80% of the residential financing at present and all three are surviving on taxpayer support. FNM is now renting homes to their borrowers rather than foreclose. A vivid case-in-point when government interferes with free enterprise.

Despite all the bad news, new home sales nationally were up 6.2% in October and resales were up 23.5% for the same month influenced significantly by the extension of the $8,000 tax credit for new home and $6,500 for resales.

So, how do you play the residential market? One, work with a seasoned, reliable realtor or syndicator experienced in foreclosures, short sales and other opportunities. For those who want to invest in the Phoenix Metropolitan market and require full hands-on management you should consider Empire Residential Opportunity Fund, LLC. This is a private offering available only to "accredited investors." Interested parties should contact Empire directly, or email CMV at hlquist@cox.net

In the commercial market, which exceeds residential in the bearish news department, Vanguard's REIT ETF is a representative play for the potential longer-term upside in this market. The stock is already up 100% from its low so it isn't a screaming buy. Total assets are near $10 billion and are diversified as follows:

Industrial -- 4.9%
Office -- 16.2%
Residential -- 17.1%
Retail -- 25.5%
Specialized -- 27.1%
Diversified -- 9.2%

8. Special Situations
These names are for aggressive investors who can afford to lose most if not all of their capital allocated to the 3 natural resource stocks in this section. _________ (_________) is a Canadian precious metals exploration company with a large prospect in Argentina (H. L. Quist owns and controls a substantial holding in this company)._________, Ltd. is a Canadian diversified investment and merchant banking company. It is invested in small cap uranium, oil and gas, precious metals, potash, lithium and rare earths as well as biotech and technology sectors. Uranium exploration is a major part of_________ holdings. _________, Ltd., (_________) is also a Canadian exploration company focused on rare elements which are used in virtually all communication devices. It is reported that China owns or controls 90% of the rare earths known in the world. _________ is also involved in gold exploration. Anyone interested in any of these special situations should go to the respective websites for full information.

_________is Proshares Ultra Short ETF which is a play on rising interest rates. As rates rise the value of the Lehman Long-Term Bond Index (20 years +) loses value and thereby a gain for the investor who is "short" the bonds. Ultra means that the security is leveraged 2x1 thereby doubling any gains or losses. As long-term bond yields rose from January, 2009 to June, 2009 this ETF rose from $36/share to $58/share, but dropped 20% when rates declined in late summer. This security is for aggressive investors only.

H. L. Quist is associated with DJM Wealth Strategies, LLC, a Registered Investment Advisor and has a branch office at 4323 East McDonald Drive, Phoenix, Arizona 85018. All inquiries should be directed to hlquist@cox.net

H. L. Quist's CMV Recommended List is NOT included in preview.

DISCLOSURE:
Material discussed is meant for general illustration and/or informational purposes only and it is not to be construed as tax, legal, or investment advice. Although the information has been gathered from sources believed to be reliable, please note individual situations can vary therefore, the information should be relied upon when coordinated with individual professional advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Diversification does not ensure against loss.


-- H. L. Quist

P.S. You may also send me a message through the newsletter site and I or my internet assistant will get back to you. HLQuist_Contrarian_Market_View-owner@yahoogroups.com

MACRO CHANGE! The Myth is: Keynesian Economics will succeed in the Obama Presidency

Hello World,

MACRO CHANGE! The Myth is: Keynesian Economics will succeed in the Obama Presidency

Economic Myths can persist for many years and undeservedly some become truth. The Myth Buster and time has debunked many of them. Like:

"What is good for General Motors is good for the Country," or

"The Federal Reserve is independent," and

"The US dollar is as good as gold."

You get the drift. But, there is one persistent economic myth that has survived for over 70 years and has resurfaced (for the umpteenth time) as the solution to America's and the world's financial dilemma created by the abuse of power by capitalists and Wall St. greed.

That myth is the Keynesian Theory of Economics.

A short history is in order and is taken from a research paper "Keynes at Harvard, Economic Deception as a Political Credo," compiled by the Trustees of the Veritas Foundation. The Trustees were all graduates of Harvard and it was published in 1962 in an attempt to prevent the Economics Department at Harvard from being dominated by Keynesian radical socialists. Unfortunately, the Trustees failed in their mission but their research is even more valuable and appropriate today. Veritas in Latin means truth.

John Maynard Keynes (JMK) was born in England in 1883 and was the son of a Cambridge professor who, when Keynes was seven years old, wrote a book attacking the principles of Laissez-Faire (government should not interfere with business and commerce) and the free enterprise system. Greatly influenced by his father JMK, "banded together with a group of radicals who were destined to become the outstanding socialist leaders of Great Britain." (Page 43 of "Keynes at Harvard"). At age 20 JMK became a member of the Fabian Socialists at Cambridge. Despite his ideological disdain of profits for individual gain, JMK built up a sizable fortune of 500,000 pounds ($2.5 million) by 1937, which reveals the hypocrisy of the man and his comrades who railed against capitalism and personal wealth.

Despite the fact that JMK visited the US in 1931 and met with officials at the Federal Reserve and President Herbert Hoover, it wasn't until he published "The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money" in 1936 that his reputation grew throughout the world. With the Great Depression impacting all corners of the globe JMK's theory was immediately heralded (in desperation) as a panacea but in reality it opened pandora's box. Franklin D. Roosevelt "blessed" JMK's theory on the basis that "Socialism would save Capitalism."

What were the basic tenets of Keynesianism?

-- Capitalists are the cause of business cycles and unemployment and the primary villains are the money-lenders.

-- Capitalism should be regulated and controlled by a central authority. The US Constitution should be scraped so as not to interfere with government.

-- The economy can be controlled by variations of the rate of interest, budgetary deficits and surpluses, public works and a redistribution of personal incomes in the egalitarian direction.

-- A scientific facade is necessary to create the illusion of modern progressivism. (Think global warming.)

-- Large scale deficit financing by government is necessary during recessions to achieve full employment.

Roosevelt as well as Stalin, Hitler and Mussolini all drank JMK's Kool-Aid. FDR's New Deal cocktail was spiked with sugar Keynes. What most readers will not know or recall is that despite all the stimulus provided by the New Deal, the US economy fell into a deeper recession in 1937 and 1938. On May 9, 1939 Henry Morgenthau, FDR's Secretary of the Treasury wrote:

"We have tried spending money. We have spent more than we ever had before and it does not work...After eight years of this administration we have just as much unemployment as when we started...and an enormous debt to boot!"

That says it all. America's version of Keynesianism did not work. World War II ended the Great Depression. And, that could happen again. When Obamanomics fails, start a war. (Think Iran.) Keynesianism was not economic theory, it was political ideology!

JMK died in April 1946 but his ideology was re-ignited in the 1960s by Lyndon Johnson and his "Great Society." It converted Richard Nixon and lead to the disastrous inflation during the Presidency of Jimmy Carter (1976-1980) when the Consumer Price Index (CPI) reached 13%, the prime rate topped out at 21.5% and residential mortgage rates peaked at 17%. Milton Friedman, one of America's foremost economists, originally supported JMK's theory in the New Deal era, but in the 50s he reversed his position and challenged the premise that government could manage the economy. Friedman forecast the "Stagflation" that did occur in the Carter era. Friedman's theory of Monetarism and unabashed belief in Laissez-Faire and free enterprise greatly influenced Ronald Regan. It is interesting to note that in Friedman's last interview in 2006, he forecast that Islamofacism would be the greatest threat to the free world. If Friedman were alive today, he would surely add Obamanomics and the rebirth of Keynesianism as a threat to America.

All this history could be a prelude to what is ahead given President Obama's acceptance of JMK's theory of governance and deficit spending. Within the next 12 months, the US Treasury will have to refinance $2 trillion in short-term debt plus approximately an additional $1.5 trillion in deficit spending. Where in the world will the Treasury be able to borrow $3.5 trillion in one year when the last T-Bills were at a negative rate? That's equal to approximately 30% of the Nation's GDP! The Greenspan-Guidotti Rule states that any country should maintain hard currency reserves equal to at least 100% of their short-term debt. The US has only about $500 billion in reserves. The bottom line? The US is headed for a default on its sovereign debt. Massive amounts of public and private debt will never be paid. When? No one knows.

In The Myth Buster's book "How To Profit From The Coming Inflationary Boom and Avoid the Next Crash", he said:

"One of John Maynard Keynes' most oft repeated line's was, ‘In the long run, we are all dead.' Meaning — don't be concerned about the aftermath of massive deficits — we'll all be dead when the problems arise. Advocating and utilizing his theory today will ultimately lead to monster inflation and quite possibly hyperinflation and a "crack-up boom." Maybe then, we will be able to bury Keynes forever."

The problem is that in the end we'll all be alive and our children and grandchildren will be burdened by the myth that deficits don't matter. Our President and Congress took "intellectual cover" in Keynesianism as sound economic policy. If they had read history they would have discovered that Keynes and his theory were a fraud.

-- H. L. Quist

Sign up for my very special monthly newsletter "H. L. Quist's Contrarian Market View".

This is the service many of you have been asking me for.

I have decided to come out of retirement, as a result of many factors, including requests for my services in Asset Management. In addition to private consultation, I am offering a private Internet newsletter, which will provide you with specific investment recommendations and also special alerts as needed. This newsletter will be sent about once a month, or as needed, and will cost $9.95/month or $99/year payable in advance.
The first issue will be sent out the first week in January, 2010. Expect the first newsletter to provide you an important market forecast for the year.

Click here to subscribe for a year (about 20% off the monthly cost) $99/year.

Or click here to sign up on a month-by-month basis $9.95/month.

You must provide your preferred screen name to receive the newsletter and also the initial 'invitation' to join this private group (it is provided through a yahoo-group feature, closed to the public).

I am now associated with DJM Wealth Strategies, LLC - an announcement letter will be sent out shortly. -- H. L. Quist

The Myth Was: 2009 Would Be Bad Year In The Economy and Financial Markets!

Hello World,

The Myth Buster (TMB), the ever consistent contrarian, didn't agree with the hordes of economists, market analysts and pundits of all stripes who forecast a dismal, depressing 2009. On December 1, 2008, TMB posted on his blog "Another Bubble" which forecast that "Billions, yes maybe a trillion will flee from (US) Treasuries..." that would fuel, in part, a surprising bull market in several sectors. Specifically, this is what TMB said on December 1, 2008: (Also repeated on page 61 in "How to Profit From The Coming Inflationary Boom: And Avoid the Next Crash")

"Where will a large portion of this money go?

First, equities. A dramatic bear market rally could be ahead (A 55% rally in the DOW validates TMB's forecast)

Second, gold. The ultimate money and inflation hedge. (49% rally from $750/oz to $1,115/oz validates TMB's forecast)

Third, real estate. A surprising rebound could defy all prognostications. (Recent reports from Beazer Homes and Toll Brothers that new home construction and sales have been positive in the third quarter and the sheer volume of purchases of foreclosures by investors and home buyers have been a pleasant surprise and defied most prognosticators)

In the book "Profit" (written in late spring of 2009) TMB made numerous other forecasts that have been or are about to occur: A few are:

1. Auto Sales (Page 96)
"...your author forecasts a headline that will appear in most American newspapers by fall saying, Car sales are up!...Ford, in your author's opinion, will be the big winner." Note: Ford was the big winner and made $1 billion.

2. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Page 96)
"Your author boldly forecasts that by the end of the third quarter of 2009, this index will rise appreciably..." Note: The Index rose from a low of 56 in February 2009 to a high of 73 in September 2009.

3. Bank Earnings (Page 97)
"Never in our Nation's history has the banks cost of funds been so low and the earnings spread so wide in our banking system. Barring an unforseen catastrophe, bank earnings in the last half of 2009 and going forward in 2010 will be robust." Note: Earnings at Goldman Sachs and other banks have been so robust that bonuses (if the Salary Czar permits them) in 2009 will be the largest ever.

4. The Coming Boom in Retail Sales Arrives in Time for Christmas (Page 85)
"A shortage of goods coupled with tax rebates and consumer savings could create a classic supply-demand imbalance going into the Christmas Season. Toys, in particular, could be in short supply." Note: Obviously the jury is still out on this forecast but early indications are that TMB nailed at least one market — Toys. An article entitled, "Stores Run Low on Holiday's Hot Toys" that appeared in the November 10th edition of the Arizona Republic indicates that as early as six weeks prior to Christmas, the nation's retailers don't have adequate supplies of five popular toys. Personal savings are at a 15 years high and amount to approximately $300 billion more over the same period last year. A much better than expected retail results will also impact consumer sentiment moving forwards into 2010.

An ardent and supportive fan of TMB read the draft of this post and commented:

"I can't believe this guy! He told me to put my money market accounts in Norwegian Krone and Australian dollars and they're up over 20% this year. He told me to buy gold and it's up 40%. Virtually all the forecasts in his book have come true. I can't understand why so few people know who The Myth Buster is. You gotta read his stuff and buy his newsletter and books!" -- T.M. Scottsdale, AZ (Note: Information on the newsletter will be forthcoming.)

TMB reminds all readers that this "turning point" in the economy evidenced by the above has been a result of artificially inseminated liquidity and stimuli. The early stages of this inflationary boom can be profitable for investors and business owners, but if prices of goods and services accelerate out of control a "crack-up boom" could be devastating. Keep in touch with TMB to monitor events.

Two Special offers on the books by H L Quist: (Be sure to provide the mailing address(es).)

Single copy of "How to Profit from The Coming Inflationary Boom: And Avoid the Next Crash" is just $20 shipped to any USA address and includes shipping and handling. Click here to order.

Two book SPECIAL OFFER — 25% discount! Includes PROFIT and "The Aftermath of Greed: Get Ready for the Coming Inflationary Boom," shipped to any USA address for just $35. Click here to order

A wonderful CHRISTMAS gift for your children and grandchildren who will be the most impacted by Buster's forecasts.

And check out my video, posted this week, on the "Inflationary Boom Has Begun." See the sidebar for the link.

-- H. L. Quist

What They Are Saying About THE MYTH BUSTER:

Hi,
I think we are on your list for your blog post updates, but would love to get your new newsletter and any other investment advise that you have. My husband and I met you at SEVRAR and have your 2 books, "The Aftermath of Greed..." and "How to Profit in Inflationary Boom..." We follow you and find that your predictions and common sense in the market far exceeds anyone else!! We have most of our (small amount) of investment money in real estate right now but I think that you are so right and may invest some in commodities or stock market. Thanks for sharing your knowledge with the world! -- B. E., Gilbert, AZ

. . .

Hi HL,
A close friend of mine Bob Kennedy turned me onto your site and books. I was very impressed with what you had to say and your ability to read the economic tea leaves so to speak. I would like you to include me on your blog, newsletter, and email lists. Also, which book are you referring to that tells how to play the coming inflationary period? I have been concerned about this for a while and you make more sense than anyone I have listened to yet. Thanks again, -- K.W. Arizona

The Myth Is: The Planet is Doomed!

Hello World,

Al Gore received a Nobel Prize and an Oscar for claiming in his film "An Inconvenient Truth" that humans cause global warming. Now over 31,000 scientists say Al Gore is WRONG! In addition, a British judge has ruled that Gore's film cannot be shown in UK schools because it contains 9 factual errors.

In December, Barrack Obama will sign away US sovereignty and commit its' citizens to the biggest scam and tax increase in history. LISTEN TO THE MYTH BUSTER AND STOP THIS HYSTERIA!

Go To These Sources:

Not Evil Just Wrong -- Global Climate Scam -- Phoenix Tea Party

I will be will be speaking to the tea party group Tuesday, Oct. 27th, 6:30pm, Rocking R Ranch, 6136 E. Baseline Rd.,Mesa, AZ. (Info -480-797-2896 organizer)

Listen to my podcast on this Myth here, or click on the podcast on the sidebar on this blog.

-- H. L. Quist

The Myth Buster's "Secret" Revealed!

Hello World!

Catherine Crowley, owner of Cat PR Communications, interviews author and historical economist H. L Quist, revealing for the first time The Myth Buster's ‘secret' to his successful market forecasts. A Must Read for anyone interested in their future and their money.

Catherine Crowley: (CAT)

Mr. Quist, I've known you for over 10 years but never realized that you've had such a long history of revelations that have enabled you to forecast future events. In the current vernacular you would probably be called a "futurist." You are a true visionary. I think your readers would like to know more about how you were able to accurately predict certain events.

H. L Quist: (HLQ)

Certainly, but I would like to focus on financial and political events rather than the personal since my readers and listeners are so concerned about what is happening economically and politically and what will happen in the future.

CAT:

Of course. But I think a little background and history is important. If you will, please relate your story of the 1987 stock market crash.

HLQ:

At that point in time I was 100% involved in the land development business in Scottsdale, Arizona. What makes my premonition of this cataclysmic event remarkable is that I wasn't ‘tuned into' the stock market having sold my insurance and securities business at the top of the market in 1978.

One night, while sleeping, I had a very clear picture in my mind of panic on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. I liquidated my brokerage and IRA accounts the week of October 12, 1987. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DOW) lost about 15% that week. The following Monday (referred to as "Black Monday") the DOW fell 22.6% which was the largest one-day decline in history. In total, the DOW declined over 40% in one week leaving investors in shock and disbelief. My wife became a believer.

CAT:

What caused the crash and how does that event relate to today?

HLQ:

Most analysts point to the obvious — The Bull Market which began in 1982 had gained considerable momentum by 1987 with the DOW gaining 44% by August of that year alone. Computerized program trading was new and many observers expressed concern that both massive buying and selling could exacerbate market volatility. Merger mania and leveraged buy- outs (LBOs) financed by high-yield junk bonds created a culture of greed not unlike the recent subprime mess. Treasury Bill rates rose from 5.30% in January to 7.19% by October. Like all bubbles, the stage was set for a calamity. Amazingly, few saw it coming. Reviewing this event now, there's a critical component to it.

Few, if any economists, market analysts or historians will connect the Plaza Accord of 1985 with the Bull Market that led to Black Monday. The Group of 5 (G-5), the five largest global economies, met at the Plaza Hotel in New York City to discuss trade and currency imbalances what were creating economic stress within the group. A strong US dollar (USD) had appreciated 80% against the other major currencies which made US exports non-competitive and created huge trade surplus in Japan and Germany. As a result the US persuaded the G-5 to have the USD devalue against the other four currencies and in two years (1987) the USD had fallen almost 50% against the Yen and D-Mark. The result? A near parabolic rise in the US stock and real estate markets. The G-5 met again at the Louvre in France in 1987 and agreed to HALT the decline of the USD. The result? The Crash.

Why is this slice of history relevant today? The recent global financial crisis, trade imbalances, competitive currency devaluations and a host of other problems are the focus of the G-20 (no longer the G-5). What's coming? A new currency alignment. The USD should be devalued against all major currencies. Gold reached an all time high on October 6th in anticipation of that possible event.

CAT:

The stock market crash also influenced your thinking on your real estate project didn't it?

HLQ:

Lincoln Resorts, Indian Bend Properties and Scottsdale Lakes Golf Club were formed in 1983 to assemble, re-zone, and develop 222 acres in the heart of Scottsdale, Arizona for a 500 room luxury resort hotel, 200 single family homes and a Robert Trent Jones Golf Course. I was a 20% joint venture partner in the ambitious project which was initiated shortly after Congress enacted the Garn-St. Germain Act in 1982. That Act was designed to revive a nearly-failed S&L industry devastated by the inflation-driven 16% interest rates of the late 70s. Our timing was perfect as land acquisition financing became available. Another short-term fix that would create a much larger problem later. Commercial development took off like a rocket propelled by tax incentives that proved to be too stimulative. After Congress attempted to slow commercial development with the Tax Reform Act of 1986 and the stock market debacle of a year later, it was apparent to two of the three partners and the joint venture's adviser that the development-ready project should be sold and not built. A buyer was introduced and a sale was closed on September 28, 1988 which proved to be the market high. My vision of what was about to occur was redundant in this instance.

By early 1989 it was apparent to anyone with any degree of perspective and experience that the over leveraged and over-built commercial market globally and in the US and the institutions that financed the boom were in deep doo-doo. Congress enacted the Financial Institution Reform, Recovery & Enforcement Act (FIRREA) on August 9, 1989. Institutional financing for any real estate project in the US was to become unavailable but remarkably few seemed to recognize what Congresses' intent was and the impact on the industry. Fortunately for me and my partners, the buyer secured financing that paid off the project's underlying land loan. Within month's the buyer's lender was shuttered and the Resolution Trust Corp created by FIRREA seized the property. The resort site which we had sold for $13/Sq. Ft. in 1988 was sold at auction three years later for $3.75/Sq. Ft. This period marked the largest write-off of real property values since the Great Depression and redistribution of wealth prior to the present day.

There is a sidebar to this story which is enhanced by my ability to see what others can't. When the buyer paid off the underlying land loan which was about $10,000,000, the senior partner and I met with the S&L President (project lender) and requested a small infrastructure development loan for Indian Bend Properties. The president greatly appreciative of the payment (few loans were repaid) apologetically declined the request. In the lobby, my partner remarked:

"I can't understand why they declined."

I replied: "It's over!"

"What's over" my partner asked.

"They're closing their doors!"

"How did you get that information from that discussion? He inquired.

"Oh you know, I can see what others can't see," I replied.

I don't think my partner ever knew where my source originated and I never told him.

It was indeed over. 747 financial institutions were closed. The plan by the Fed and Congress to save the S&L industry in 1982, destroyed it just 7 years later. The reader is probably able to realize that a pattern is developing here. Rear view vision is 20/20.

CAT:

A great story. Going forward, you were able to combine considerable knowledge with your vision, weren't you?

HLQ:

Yes. Suffering a devastating financial loss, particularly when our initial strategy, the ultimate execution and the timing of the sale of the property was nearly flawless, can be humbling. But I was determined to gain from the loss and thus began a search to discover:

1. What is the cause of boom and bust cycles?
2. Are they predictable?
3. How does an investor protect oneself from these dramatic shifts in the economy?

I knew I could help others which was a defining moment for me. Two prominent best sellers in the early 1990s were:
The Great Reckoning: Protecting Yourself From the Coming Depression, by James Dale Davidson and Sir William Rees-Mogg, and
Bankruptcy 1995: The Coming Collapse of America and How to Stop It, by Harry E. Figgie, Jr. and Gerald J. Swanson.

As the titles clearly elucidate, the future the authors saw was bleak. The recession of 1992 would morph into a depression. Fortunately the thesis of the authors were 100% wrong. I envisioned a much different scenario.

What I learned from these sources plus considerable additional research was that all boom and bust cycles (with the exception of the crash of 1973-1974) had three common denominators:

1. Federal Reserve Monetary Policy,
2. Congressional legislation, and
3. The Madness of Crowds.

Armed with a wealth of data I began teaching a CE Class in real estate in 1994 and published a newsletter. Despite the above cited experts and the ominous portents of an eminent economic collapse. I boldly proclaimed in the first class:

"Get Ready For The Coming Boom in Real Estate."

One Realtor/attendee in the back of the class shouted out angrily, "How can you make such a stupid statement." Almost all of us here haven't closed a sale in years!" (He could have said, you lied!")

I calmly advised the class that I had done my homework and then delivered six reasons why a boom was coming. First and foremost, FIRREA had expired and the banks, now flush with cash, were able to make real estate loans. None of the attendees were even aware of the law. Ironically, this forecast marked the beginning of the longest (12 years) and most profitable bull market in real estate in the nation's history. "Select" investors who purchased RTC properties in the early 90s realized outsized gains in a short period of time. Most were political payoffs. Another story I fully understood and related.

CAT:

You saw another stock market crash coming at the end of 1999. I didn't know what to think about your forecast as I helped you craft your book. I soon became a believer.

HLQ:

The stock market crash of 2000 was a no-brainer. I didn't have to reach into my subconscious mind. Everyone now says they saw it coming. How many said it in writing. In early 1999 I conceived a fictional story but with easily identifiable real-life characters and real time markets, that would forecast both political and stock market events. The book was "Secrets: A Novel of Golf and Politics," which was published in January 2000. My hero, Robbie, ‘mystically and mysteriously finds a secret to success as a pro golfer and wins the US Open while at the same time acquires the power to be able to accurately forecast the future. As the author's alter-ego, Robbie predicts a colossal collapse in the stock market. If the reader is interested in golf, a murder mystery, romance, finance and political intrigue, "Secrets" is a great read. (Available on the sidebar on this blog.) The only forecast that didn't come to pass? The controversial and ambitious president of the US (the Villain) doesn't become the Executive Secretary of the United Nations — despite an all out real life campaign to get the job!

CAT:

You related to me the story of 9-11 and your vision of a New Years eve bombing. It's amazing for what did and did not happen.

HLQ:

I had had many painful visions of terror attacks leading up to 9-11 but I flat out missed that event. I was playing in a golf tournament in the mountains and as most golfers know, serious players think of little else. A year or so later I had a clear unambiguous vision that there would be a terrorist attack in Times Square during the New Years eve celebration. I was transfixed on the TV as the time ticked down and told those watching the celebration that I was fearful of an event. Obviously it didn't happen but remarkably an attack was planned. Sometime later it was revealed that the FBI, CIA and other agencies had intercepted terrorists crossing into the US from Canada with the intent of carrying out the New Years Eve massacre. I have had ongoing exhausting, sleepless nights envisioning such attacks. They're not going to stop. 9-11 started a 100 year religious war.

CAT:

You foresaw the big crash coming very early in 2005, didn't you?

HLQ:

Often a casual or crafted remark or "trial balloon" will reveal a policy strategy that will go un- noticed is a clue to a major market shift. Such was the case when Ben Bernanke, then a Federal Reserve Board member, gave a November 2, 2002 speech to the national Economics Club in Washington, D.C. where he said "there will never be a depression in the US because the government has at its disposal a new technology called the printing press." The future chairman of the Fed also suggested that the government could "drop $100 bills from helicopters," which garnered him the nickname "Helicopter Ben." Those flippant comments were a clear signal to me that the Fed's strategy would be to flood the market with cheap money. I recommended to all clients at the time to get fully invested when fear from 9-11 was prevalent throughout America. I was now connecting my knowledge with my vision. The period late 2002 to early 2007 probably represented the greatest inflation of assets (real property, equities and commodities), in US history. In July 2005 I wrote a Special Report (available upon request) entitled "The Future Isn't What It Used To Be." It forecast The Great Reckoning to begin in 2006/2007. The report also warned:

"US banks, brokerage firms, and hedge funds have created an enormous and incalculable inverse pyramid of leveraged bets known as derivatives that threatens to bring down all of the global financial markets." (Page 26)

I clearly saw the future but most listeners and readers were in denial. The derivatives were the trigger for the collapse. Exactly two years later this "gun" was fired but incredibly very few realized they had been shot.

CAT:

Your "Special Report" was really, a compilation of your knowledge and what you envisioned. You indicated that you followed your own advice but you did make a mistake. What was it?

HLQ:

Both books, GREED and PROFIT are a compilation of events leading up to the cause and effect of this severe recession but there's one personal aspect that's not included and for purposes of full disclosure I'll relate it here. I basically liquidated all equities prior to ‘the end of Wall St. as we knew it." I did however, retain almost all gold stocks, gold options and futures. I made the same error as the now famous Peter Schiff made. When the massive flight to safety came a year ago, September 2009, precious metals were also liquidated. The only safe-haven was US Treasuries. Now of course, a year later, gold has reached a new all-time high and assumed its role as a preferred asset class and hedge against the devaluation of the USD. For the record I still own those stocks. It proves that you can have a vision of 20/20 and still not see the entire playing field.

CAT:

I guess that brings us to the most important issue of all. What does The Myth Buster see in the future?

HLQ:

Without question this is the most difficult and painful forecast that I've ever made. One, difficult because there is a convergence of so many social, political and economic factors that impact the picture, and Two, because what needs to be done to improve the US economy may not be an option at all. Reluctant as I am to disclose this, I'm motivated by those who need and want to know. Let me tackle Number 2 first, okay?

CAT:

I hope that you can break it down so I and the average reader will understand.

HLQ:

I'll try. The US needs to have the USD devalued against the world's major currencies. Like the Plaza Accord in 1985 which resulted in an inflation of assets, i.e., real property, equities and commodities, in order to bail out the banks and halt the massive residential and commercial mortgage foreclosures.

Loan modifications, though helpful and new programs such as Barney Frank just proposed to use TARP money to pay down loans, won't do the job. The reason this solution may not be an option is that the Chinese, Japanese and other governments own trillions of US Treasury debt and US assets and they don't want to see their assets diminish in value. More importantly, they don't want their export goods to become more expensive to Americans and reduce their trade surplus. Conversely, our exports would become cheaper and more competitive. Another plus for US manufacturing and creation of more jobs. This asset inflation scenario is the basis for my book ‘How To Profit From The Coming Inflationary Boom."

Now, here's the ‘ball buster" (excuse the play on names). Central banks, hedge funds, speculators and even small investors are Short the USD — ‘betting" it will decrease in value. All of these folks, assuming that the US Fed will continue to keep US interest rates low for a long period of time have all moved to the same side of the ship. What usually happens when this occurs? The ship capsizes! The prospect of this contrarian move occurring is both ominous and present. A global monetary crisis could collapse the world's fragile financial system that was on a similar brink a year ago. In retrospect it was Alan Greenspan and the other Masters of the Universe that brought us to this point. The new cadre of characters at the Fed, and the Treasury and the Administration won't be able to impose another bailout on the US taxpayer. I pray that this vision never materializes.

Now, the social and political.

Barrack Obama, Nancy Pelosi, and Michael Moore are the voice and portent of the future New America. Their goal along with their army of Progressives, Marxists, Communists, and Socialists is to undermine and destroy the capitalist system. Faced with the dilemma outlined above its an easy sell to attribute the problems we face today to the evils of the capitalists and their greed. A coup d'etat has taken place in America and those who are in control are Not motivated by finding a free market solution to the problem. In fact, this crisis "should not go to waste" and they believe that it should serve to bury the present system. The bailout plans already enacted and those proposed along with trillions of deficits as far as the eye can see are designed not to save but to bankrupt Capitalism. These revolutionaries designed it that way. Now, the silent majority has caught on to the scheme. America's middle class is now in a struggle to attempt to prevent the re-distribution of the remaining amount of its net worth. The elitists have their position, their money, and their power. They're above the fray.

What made America the envy of the world and to many the cause of resentment, was not only our free enterprise system but our incomparable Rule of Law. America was the place that its citizens and non-citizens could do business confident that our nation's code of ethics and Rule of Law would protect them and their property. Were now witnessing the breakdown of this integral facet of our enterprise which will allow corruption to flourish. America is now ruled by a diverse collection of Heavy-Handed Radicals — a "Thugocracy."

I apologize for this diatribe but the future picture is not warm and fuzzy. The plot of Moore's movie of America can change and end positively with a fight. There is hope. Its up to the silent majority of Democrats, Republicans and Independents who want to restore our nation's roots. We have our differences but a United America and a free enterprise system should take precedent. Help change my vision.

CAT:

Wow! What a revelation. I for one certainly hope you wake up one morning with a revised vision for America.

HLQ:

So do I. I would prefer visions of sugar plums.

-- H. L. Quist

A Coup d'etat has taken place in America abovetopsecret.com with Martin Bain from London

Hello World,

H L Quist is interviewed by internationally recognized host Martin Bain providing European and global listeners a unique perspective on the radical change in governance that has taken place in America and the potential impact on the financial markets and the economy.

Listen here.


-- H. L. Quist

The American II Duce (Supreme Leader)

What they are saying about The Myth Buster Show

"Thank you Buster not only your message, but how you deliver it in your calm, unemotional, sane and academic style. I love our country and what it stands for and to think we are on the verge of losing it because well meaning citizens are ignorant of history and the inability to connect the dots or recognize the similarities between these times and those of Nazi German or Fascist Italy is sad. Wake up America before it's too late! " -- T.P. on 2009-09-20 14:53:58

"Buster: You have outdone yourself. What an intelligent analysis of the current situation! Thank you for getting the information out. I want to listen again and look forward to your next podcast." -- A.H. (Mesa, Az.)

To listen to my Podcast shows - go to the sidebar here on the blog, or click here.

To Glenn Beck - My Mentor

Hello World,

I had an opportunity to meet Glenn early in his career. His impact on me was profound. Watch my video on what I learned and how I use it to help you.


--H.L.Quist

Myth of the Week August 31, 2009

Hello World,

Another MYTH debunked. The US Treasury has a cash flow shortfall of $5 Bil per day! Rumors are rampant. Is there a new Super Sovereign Reserve Currency to be announced to replace the US dollar? A bank holiday? Listen and connect the dots. Click here for the latest podcast show, or click on sidebar.


Click here, if you have not purchased my 'how-to' guide How To Profit From The Coming Inflationary Boom And Avoid The Next Crash, available as a printed copy or download e-book.

-- H. L. Quist

Re-Birth of The Myth Buster Radio Show!

Hello World!

I'm Podcasting!

I am pleased to announce the first show of the re-birth of "The Myth Buster Show" which aired on Phoenix radio for some time and by comments and calls was hugely successful. Click here to go to the show home page where you can listen to the first and subsequent shows. You can also subscribe to the Channel and receive notices in your inbox of new shows.

Let you friends and family know about The Myth Buster, and I promise to keep you informed. Tune In!

If you have not purchased a copy of my new "how-to" guide on profiting from the inflationary boom, click here to purchase "How To Profit From The Coming Inflationary Boom and Avoid The Next Crash." This is a must-read guide for anyone concerned about their money and their future.

-- H. L. Quist

What A Banker Says About "Profit"

Hello World,

I received the following comment on my book How To Profit From The Coming Inflationary Boom And Avoid The Next Crash from Vic Currier, and wanted to share it with you.

"With Buster, your politics don't matter. Only prudent investing - expressed in his layman's language - matters. I lost by not acting quickly on his sage advice. Now, I'll be following him to the letter. I recommend you do the same. Keep him close. He is a true visionary and you will "Profit" by doing so."

Vic Currier is a retired federal savings bank board member/executive and real estate entrepreneur in California, Arizona and New Mexico.

You can purchase PROFIT as a print copy or download at my publishers page here.

Coming soon my podcast radio show "H L Quist - The Myth Buster"

-- H. L. Quist

H. L. Quist - Sunday's Radio Show was Great

Hello World,

My guest appearance on Pat Gorman's Hard Money Watch radio program was a great experience! If you missed it listen here -- the link should be active for several weeks, so send this blog to your friends and family.

If you have not purchased your copy of "PROFIT" my how-to-guide click here for the payment window where you can purchase the book for $20 plus shipping using your Paypal account or credit/debit card. Don't forget to give me your mailing address.

Also for any of you who would like to take advantage of my two book special of GREED and PROFIT for just $30 plus shipping click here, same kind of payment window comes up.

Stay tuned for more updates.

H. L. Quist

H L Quist to be on Pat Gorman Show Sunday Morning

Hello World,

Pat Gorman is interviewing me Sunday morning 10 - 11 a.m. (Arizona time) on his radio show Hard Money Watch with Pat Gorman heard on KFNN 1510 AM Listen Live Here

You can call into the show at (602) 324-KFNN (5366)and ask questions.

If you miss the show, you can check the archive later on for this program here at this link.

Don't miss the show where I discuss my new book How To Profit From The Coming Inflationary Boom And Avoid The Next Crash

If you have not purchased your copy of the book yet, here is the payment link just $20 plus shipping for this "how to guide" on making it through these tough financial times. (Don't forget to give me your mailing address.) -- stay tuned for more updates.

H. L. Quist

H. L. Quist Releases New Book

Hello World,

How To Profit From The Coming Inflationary Boom And Avoid The Next Crash is the name of my new book and you can purchase it by clicking on the links below. But first let me direct you to my new video in the sidebar here on the blog, where I give you a little history on how we got to the current economic climate and what I see coming.

The links below will take you to a payment page where you can use your credit card or paypal account to purchase the book. This special offer is only available through these links. Don't forget to provide your address for shipping. Prices are for US addresses.

"PROFIT" is just $20 or you can purchase both GREED and PROFIT for $30, plus shipping.

PURCHASE PROFIT

PURCHASE PROFIT And GREED TOGETHER and save.

Don't forget to sign up to receive posts from this blog, as events unfold.

--H.L.Quist

H L Quist Declares That The Obamanation Boom Has Begun

Hello World,

I have just posted a new video "Obamanation Boom". Listen to my current views on inflation and a boom.

Also, just posted is my most recent interview with the hosts of Financial Lifeline Radio.

Both are on the sidebar here in the blog.

-- H. L. Quist

The Coming Boom in Retail Sales

Hello World,

A combination of Legislative mandates, the Stimulus Plan, reduced competition and new consumer savings and income could result in surprisingly robust retail sales by the Fourth Quarter of 2009.

I’m not an expert on retail but I do have an excellent track record of analyzing economic and political trends and forecasting future events. An unusual confluence of factors are coming together which could bring a pleasant surprise to the devastated retail industry.

First, The Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF) is a new, one trillion dollar, program designed to ‘unlock’ consumer credit that will begin on March 17. Secondly, the Consumer Product Safety Improvement Act which took effect on February 10, prohibits the sale of imported products that contain lead or phthalates. It is estimated that there is more than $600 million in toys alone made illegal by the law that are sitting in warehouses. The Coalition for Safe and Affordable Childrenswear says its members have $500 million in unsalable soft goods. And, there’s $125 million of motorized bikes, four wheelers, all which totals over $1 trillion dollars, according to an article by Joseph Pereira in the March 5th edition of the Wall St. Journal.

Thirdly, is the large number of retail chain stores and mom and pops outlets that have closed in the past year and inventories of the survivors have been slashed to minimums. A shortage of goods coupled with tax rebates and consumer savings could create a classic supply-demand imbalance going into the Christmas season. Toys, in particular, could be in short supply. Retailers could achieve pricing power and well-needed profits will follow.

The downside? This imbalance could trigger the beginning of an inflationary cycle that would carryover to the entire economy. But that’s what the Fed, the US Treasury, and the politician’s objective is, right?

Check out my new video in the side bar.

I’m currently writing my follow-up book to “The Aftermath of Greed.”.

--H L Quist

Will Socialism Save Capitalism?

"We have tried spending money. We are spending more than we have ever spent before and it does not work." -- Henry Morgenthau Jr, May 9, 1939, appearing before powerful Democrats on the House Ways and Means Committee.

Hello World,

See my new video in the sidebar where I discuss the transfer of power from the conservatives to the liberals, and what history tells us.

Send this message on to friends, family and co-workers.

-- H. L. Quist

H. L. Quist Interview via London

Hello World,

Last week I was a guest on "Above Politics" radio out of London, UK. Click here to listen to my conversation with Host Martin Bain.

-- H. L. Quist

Profit From an Inflationary Boom

Hello World,

Check out my new video message, see the sidebar here and also on youtube.com/hlquist.


--H.L. Quist aka "The Myth Buster"

H. L. Quist on Financial Lifeline Radio

Hello World,

My guest appearance, yesterday, on Financial Lifeline Radio was an excellent opportunity to discuss with the show hosts Dave Harbison and John March our mutual concerns about the current economic environment and my views of the opportunities you as an investor have before you. The show archives remain 'live' for two weeks.

Click here to listen

If you have problems with the above link, go to the main archive page here, and scroll down to my segment to listen or download the program.

And, don't forget to check my own radio show "The Myth Buster" by clicking on the microphone in the sidebar, for the current show archive.

Forward this blog to family, friends and co-workers for my updates on the economy and opportunities.

-- H. L. Quist