Thursday, November 12, 2009

The Myth Was: 2009 Would Be Bad Year In The Economy and Financial Markets!

Hello World,

The Myth Buster (TMB), the ever consistent contrarian, didn't agree with the hordes of economists, market analysts and pundits of all stripes who forecast a dismal, depressing 2009. On December 1, 2008, TMB posted on his blog "Another Bubble" which forecast that "Billions, yes maybe a trillion will flee from (US) Treasuries..." that would fuel, in part, a surprising bull market in several sectors. Specifically, this is what TMB said on December 1, 2008: (Also repeated on page 61 in "How to Profit From The Coming Inflationary Boom: And Avoid the Next Crash")

"Where will a large portion of this money go?

First, equities. A dramatic bear market rally could be ahead (A 55% rally in the DOW validates TMB's forecast)

Second, gold. The ultimate money and inflation hedge. (49% rally from $750/oz to $1,115/oz validates TMB's forecast)

Third, real estate. A surprising rebound could defy all prognostications. (Recent reports from Beazer Homes and Toll Brothers that new home construction and sales have been positive in the third quarter and the sheer volume of purchases of foreclosures by investors and home buyers have been a pleasant surprise and defied most prognosticators)

In the book "Profit" (written in late spring of 2009) TMB made numerous other forecasts that have been or are about to occur: A few are:

1. Auto Sales (Page 96)
"...your author forecasts a headline that will appear in most American newspapers by fall saying, Car sales are up!...Ford, in your author's opinion, will be the big winner." Note: Ford was the big winner and made $1 billion.

2. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Page 96)
"Your author boldly forecasts that by the end of the third quarter of 2009, this index will rise appreciably..." Note: The Index rose from a low of 56 in February 2009 to a high of 73 in September 2009.

3. Bank Earnings (Page 97)
"Never in our Nation's history has the banks cost of funds been so low and the earnings spread so wide in our banking system. Barring an unforseen catastrophe, bank earnings in the last half of 2009 and going forward in 2010 will be robust." Note: Earnings at Goldman Sachs and other banks have been so robust that bonuses (if the Salary Czar permits them) in 2009 will be the largest ever.

4. The Coming Boom in Retail Sales Arrives in Time for Christmas (Page 85)
"A shortage of goods coupled with tax rebates and consumer savings could create a classic supply-demand imbalance going into the Christmas Season. Toys, in particular, could be in short supply." Note: Obviously the jury is still out on this forecast but early indications are that TMB nailed at least one market — Toys. An article entitled, "Stores Run Low on Holiday's Hot Toys" that appeared in the November 10th edition of the Arizona Republic indicates that as early as six weeks prior to Christmas, the nation's retailers don't have adequate supplies of five popular toys. Personal savings are at a 15 years high and amount to approximately $300 billion more over the same period last year. A much better than expected retail results will also impact consumer sentiment moving forwards into 2010.

An ardent and supportive fan of TMB read the draft of this post and commented:

"I can't believe this guy! He told me to put my money market accounts in Norwegian Krone and Australian dollars and they're up over 20% this year. He told me to buy gold and it's up 40%. Virtually all the forecasts in his book have come true. I can't understand why so few people know who The Myth Buster is. You gotta read his stuff and buy his newsletter and books!" -- T.M. Scottsdale, AZ (Note: Information on the newsletter will be forthcoming.)

TMB reminds all readers that this "turning point" in the economy evidenced by the above has been a result of artificially inseminated liquidity and stimuli. The early stages of this inflationary boom can be profitable for investors and business owners, but if prices of goods and services accelerate out of control a "crack-up boom" could be devastating. Keep in touch with TMB to monitor events.

Two Special offers on the books by H L Quist: (Be sure to provide the mailing address(es).)

Single copy of "How to Profit from The Coming Inflationary Boom: And Avoid the Next Crash" is just $20 shipped to any USA address and includes shipping and handling. Click here to order.

Two book SPECIAL OFFER25% discount! Includes PROFIT and "The Aftermath of Greed: Get Ready for the Coming Inflationary Boom," shipped to any USA address for just $35. Click here to order

A wonderful CHRISTMAS gift for your children and grandchildren who will be the most impacted by Buster's forecasts.

And check out my video, posted this week, on the "Inflationary Boom Has Begun." See the sidebar for the link.

-- H. L. Quist

What They Are Saying About THE MYTH BUSTER:

Hi,
I think we are on your list for your blog post updates, but would love to get your new newsletter and any other investment advise that you have. My husband and I met you at SEVRAR and have your 2 books, "The Aftermath of Greed..." and "How to Profit in Inflationary Boom..." We follow you and find that your predictions and common sense in the market far exceeds anyone else!! We have most of our (small amount) of investment money in real estate right now but I think that you are so right and may invest some in commodities or stock market. Thanks for sharing your knowledge with the world! -- B. E., Gilbert, AZ

. . .

Hi HL,
A close friend of mine Bob Kennedy turned me onto your site and books. I was very impressed with what you had to say and your ability to read the economic tea leaves so to speak. I would like you to include me on your blog, newsletter, and email lists. Also, which book are you referring to that tells how to play the coming inflationary period? I have been concerned about this for a while and you make more sense than anyone I have listened to yet. Thanks again, -- K.W. Arizona

2 comments:

Dana said...

Thanks Buster - all good info.
So would you have a recommendation of retail stores to invest in or are you just saying that consumer sentiment is about to change?

keep the blogs coming!

CEO Trader said...

There was a camp that didn't think 2009 was going to be bad, and that was the Elliot wavers of which I'm one. As a matter of fact I bought in at the very bottom of this rally to the hour. To see what I'm about, or just learn about Elliot wave, visit my site for daily analysis:
http://ceotrader.blogspot.com