Wednesday, April 4, 2012

CMV is now FREE! April 2012

Hello World,

The Contrarian Market View Newsletter is now free.

Listen to my podcast explaining the changes in my podcast March 26th.


April, 2012


H. L. Quist’s
Contrarian Market View
Newsletter


S P E C I A L     N O T I C E
As of April 1, 2012 DJM Wealth Strategies, LLC, (DJM) a Registered Investment Advisor owned by David J. Matuszak has consolidated his operation with Dynamic Wealth Advisors (DWA) which is also a Registered Investment Advisor.  H. L. Quist, who was licensed as an Investment Advisor Representative with DJM will become associated with DWA in the same capacity.

DWA manages portfolios through a network of independent financial advisors, including H.L. Quist, and also provides back office services to other independent registered investment advisors. DWA is based in Scottsdale and offers services to advisors and their clients throughout the U.S.

CMV recommends that you go to dynamicwealthadvisors.com website and click on Wealth Management Solution 360 and play the demo in the lower right-hand corner of the site.

While previewing SOLUTION 360 you’ll quickly determine that DWA offers a seamlessly integrated secure system that offers its’ clients a consolidated picture of a client’s needs on one site.  In addition to the listing of all of your assets regardless whether they are held by Custodians for DWA, you can use SOLUTION 360 to store wills, trusts, deeds, insurance, tax returns and other documents that can instantly be recalled from a secured site.  All assets are updated every evening.

For those of you who are subscribers to the CMV, and anyone else who wishes to receive the monthly newsletter authored by H. L. Quist, there will be no cost.  All subscriptions pre-paid in advance will be prorated to the March 31, 2012 date.  Refunds will be paid by check or processed through PayPal.

The Market Overview, Current Topics and Sector Analysis will remain the same.  There will not be any specific stock recommendations.  However, in order to assist those subscribers that relied upon these recommendations, H. L. Quist will offer management services for subscriber’s assets (if desired) for a fee with no minimum amount of capital investment.  Previously, a minimum amount of $250,000 in capital investment  was required.

Please contact H. L. Quist to discuss your personal situation.

For those who presently have assets under management by H. L. Quist, the transfer is seamless.  All accounts will remain with Schwab Institutional as your Custodian and all accounts will retain the same identification number.  In addition, all fees will remain the same.  The only change is that DJM charged its’ quarterly fee in arrears.  DWA charges in advance but will assess the second quarter fee in July and the beginning of each quarter thereafter.

We are confident that everyone will benefit from this change. Please call (602) 840-4117 or email  hlquist@dynamicwealthadvisors.com  if you have any questions.

Market Overview

Amidst all the angst, hand-wringing, and inflammatory political discourse, there was a “stealth” rally in the US equity markets in the first quarter which dumbfounded most market mavens.  To wit: The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 8.1% for the quarter to 13,212 and is only 7% from the all-time high of 14,164 on October 5, 2007.  The S&P 500 rose 12% for the quarter to 1408 and the NASDAQ gained a whopping 18.7% for the quarter to 3091, which was the best start of the year for the index since the .com bubble began in 1991!

What is remarkable about this rally, however, is the lack of trading volume according to Vito J. Racanelli who writes The Trader column for Barron’s.  He quotes Christopher Zook, the chief investment officer at CAZ Investment who says, “the first quarter was mainly ‘a seller’s strike.  Nobody had reasons to sell.”  Mutual fund flows still favor bonds as investors are still pulling money out of equities.  This is a remarkable phenomenon and leaves an open questions: Can the market continue on this path for the remainder of the year?  There is a “wall of worry” to climb. Here are a few holes in the wall to patch up.

The (or according to the President, My) Election

Barron’s predicts in its’ April 2nd edition that President Obama will be re-elected in November but the “thrill of his victory will be short-lived” because Republicans will retain control of the House and secure a 53-47 advantage in the Senate. The Barron’s staff sees this “stand-off” as a positive.  CMV does not agree.  Given an obstinate Congress, determined to hold new spending initiatives and big government in check, will encounter a President who will rule by executive order and circumvent Congress.  The result, a Constitutional and Societal crisis equivalent to the Civil War.  The potential impact on the financial markets – unknown.  Markets, historically, have outperformed even at times of political turmoil.

The China Syndrome

James Grant, Editor of the Interest Rate Observer, recently interviewed on CNBC, said that the Chinese economy is in for a “very hard landing.”  That’s the obvious.  It’s the rumors of a coup, political upheaval and murder that has permeated the headlines, with ramifications that are not so obvious.  Briefly, Bo Xilai, the former Communist Party chief of the City of Chongoing and a rising star angling for a seat on China’s nine person politburo working committee, was suddenly sacked by Premier Wen Jiabao and hasn’t been seen since mid-March.  Neil Haywood, a British confidant of Bo, was found dead in a hotel room and authorities quickly cremated his body without an autopsy.  Haywood worked for a British firm that gathered strategic information and was founded by former members of Britain’s intelligence service M-16.  Rumors are rampant that Bo, who was intent on cracking down on organized crime and reviving the policies of Mao Zedong, was advocating a coup d’√©tat.  The political turmoil coupled with “economic fatigue” could result in a major capital spending program to diffuse the growing unrest.  Missing in all the drama is the global and US impact of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) reported extensively by CMV that has announced that all its’ members (principally the BRICS - Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) will no longer use the US dollar in trade agreements and are planning to set up their own “World Bank.”  The internet is also rampant with news that China and the US have reached an agreement on the devaluation of the USD which will have an immediate and profound impact on the US economy if true.

A significant bit of anecdotal evidence that China has hit the “wall” is Forex flows.  The WSJ reported on March 27, 2012 that capital is exiting China.  In the past 5 months yuan selling has equaled 200 billion ($31.7 billion).  The reason?  Expectations that the yuan will appreciate against the USD.  A very explosive situation.

Municipal Meltdowns

Stockton, California, a city of 300,000 could soon become another of a growing list of municipal governments in the US to go bankrupt.  Like many city and state governments, unfunded entitlement costs in Stockton demanded by employees and approved by the city council, are forcing officials into mediation with creditors and unions to reduce all benefits.  Vallejo, California retired employees have seen their pensions cut by 70% .  Nationally, the 50 states have promised their employees retirement health care benefits totaling $627 billion in future liability with only 4% of the cost funded.  Unfunded pensions are estimated at $4 trillion. The sad part, these employees refuse to comprehend their future and why they won’t receive their benefits.

The Non-Budget

Missed by perhaps 99% of the US population was the fact that President Obama’s budget proposal for his last year in office was submitted to the House floor and the verdict was a resounding defeat 414-0.  Fifteen Democrats abstained from voting on the measure that proposed to raise taxes by $1.9 trillion and increase the deficit.  In contrast, Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan’s budget passed 228-191 last week that proposed to balance the budget in 6 years.  Mr. Ryan’s budget has no chance in the Senate so where does that leave us?  The US hasn’t had a budget for the past 3 years and will not have one for Obama’s four year term.  The debt limit will be breached again and the lender of last resort (The Fed) will again continue to destroy the USD. Updates To Prior Topics

MF GLOBAL and The Missing Funds

The weekend edition of the Wall St. Journal (March 24-25, 2012) featured a shocking (but not unexpected) headline:

“Email Ties Corzine to Missing Funds”

CMV readers will recall that we have been closely following this story of the misappropriation of $1.6 billion in missing customer’s money which is in direct violation of Commodity Futures Trading Commission rules.  You may also recall that MF Global’s ex-CEO Jon S. Corzine, testified before Congress that he never directed anyone to misuse customer funds.  The House Sub-Committee will meet soon to review this case given this new contradictory evidence.  Perjury anyone?

There’s a much bigger issue here.  Since the stock market crash of 2008 and the revelation of the malfeasance and misdeeds of those “Masters of the Universe” (MOTU) documented by your writer in his book “The Aftermath of Greed,” it is quite apparent that the transgressors have escaped any personal penalties and disgorgement of their ill-gotten gains.

Franklin Raines, the former head of Fannie Mae “cooked the books” at the Government Sponsored Enterprise and paid himself and other officers huge bonuses on non-existent profits, exposed when the mortgage lender failed .  He was never prosecuted and taxpayers are paying him over one million dollars a year in retirement income.

Angelo Mozillo, former CEO of Country Wide Financial, whose company originated and sold perhaps billions of dollars of fraudulent and non-qualified-applicant-loans to various institutions, was indicted on civil and criminal charges but was never imprisoned and Bank of America paid all of his fines and legal fees.  It is precisely this lack of accountability that has caused the public and investors to lose trust in the financial system.  In contrast, bank officers in Iceland who were at the center of the banking and systemic collapse of the economy after the sub-prime debacle, now face criminal charges and potential jail time and restitution.

Jon S. Corzine was, according to Charlie Gasparino at CNBC, known at GS as “Fuzzy” and it wasn’t because of his facial hair.  Corzine  was formerly the CEO of Goldman Sachs (pronounced “Sucks”).  It’s time for the investing public to demand accountability and restoration of the missing funds – a simple “trimming” won’t suffice.

Goldman’s Muppets

Let’s assume for the moment that you are (or were) a premier client of Goldman Sachs (GS) and had, let’s say, $100 million or so managed by the Wall St. firm.  It’s conceivable that you would be a bit chagrined to be referred to as a “muppet ” by those Masters of the Universe – particularly when the term is Wall St. lingo for “idiots.”  That is exactly what was revealed to the New York Times by Greg Smith, a departing officer of the firm who observed that GS employees referred to their customers in such derogatory terms.  In more damming and caustic phraseology, Smith said that the culture at GS was “toxic and destructive.”

To readers of CMV this isn’t exactly a ground-breaking discovery.  For over 20 years your writer has referred to Wall Street’s number one market maker as Goldman Sacks (pronounced sucks) with tons of evidence that justifies the moniker.  Smith has simply validated what many market mavens have known or experienced for years but have resisted the urge to tell all.  Now, of course, a best-selling book and a film will soon follow that could eventually lead to the downsizing or dissolution of the company.  Just desserts for these MOTUs whose rapacious greed played such an instrumental role in the collapse of the real estate market and the loss of trillions of dollars of America’s middle class assets.

Throw Them All out

In the January and February issues of CMV we featured the revelation, in Peter Shcweizer’s book with the above title, that 50 members of Congress traded actively in the stock market and made trades in companies that they helped oversee with their Committee Assignments.  The following uproar has finally resulted in legislation to curtail Congress’ Insider Trading.  The Stop Trading on Congressional Knowledge, or cleverly, STOCK ACT will get approved by the time you receive this issue of CMV.  Actually, the prototype of this legislation was introduced over six years ago but was conveniently tabled until Peter Schweizer’s book raised the ire of the voting public.  Before all of us celebrate however, the bill has been watered down to allow members of Congress to share information  with hedge funds and financial services companies.  The status quo remains intact for the MOTUs.

Frick & Frack

In February and March, CMV featured the ramp-up of oil and gas production in the US that, according to Byron King, could make the US oil independent and possibly an oil exporter due to the evolution of hydraulic fracturing of tight shale deposits.  In March we pointed out that citizens as well as the Environmental Protection Agency were claiming that the hydraulic fracturing was threatening underground water supplies.  A feature article appeared in the April 1, 2012 edition of the WSJ entitled “EPA Backpedals on Fracking.”  The EPA, in a recent action, told a federal judge it withdrew an administrative order that alleged that Range Resources Corp had polluted water wells in a rural Texas County west of Ft. Worth.  The Agency has also declared water safe in certain areas in Pennsylvania and Wyoming.   FRICK (the EPA) and FRACK (the oil companies) will be engaged in an ongoing confrontation for a long period of time over this issue.  The choice of monikers seems appropriate. Current Topics

Real Estate

The major media outlets have begun to recognize what CMV forecast almost a year ago for the residential real estate market.

Barron’s (March 19, 2012) “Ready To Rebound”

Wall St. Journal (March 22, 2012) “Housing Shows Sign of Life”

In another recent WSJ article the writer indicated that the Phoenix market would lead the nation’s residential real estate rebound which has been evident  to CMV and its’ readers for several months.  A bit of anecdotal evidence supports our contention that the Phoenix Metro market is indeed well into recovery mode.  Your writer’s spouse has been continuously active in residential real estate for over 30 years.  In March, 2012 she presented a full price cash offer for a prospective buyer on a medium-priced home in Scottsdale only to discover there were four other offers on the same house.  An urgency is occurring in the marketplace.  Historically low mortgage rates with the prospect of them increasing and low property values with the advent of price increases have prompted buyers to get off the fence.  The Phoenix Metro area (now over 6 million in population) has seen a drop in inventory of unsold homes from 60,000 to under 24,000 in less than two years – a decline of 42%.  CMV forecasts that there will be a critical shortage of inventory in 2012 in our market.  Builders are buying lots.  New construction is underway.  Hopefully, this phenomenon will spread to your market also.

Evidence that the bottom is in, in Phoenix, is the significant rise in the median home price.  In August, 2011 it reached a 12-year low of $113,000.  In February, 2012, the median was $124,500, a rise of 8% over a year earlier.  CMV sees larger gains by fall.

On a national basis the WSJ reported on March 22, 2012 from the above article that “Sales of existing homes in January and February were at their highest level since 2007.”  And the, “Decline in real estate prices has slowed its’ pace.”  Most importantly the housing industry is adding to the nation’s GDP rather than being a drag on the economy.  Job opportunities are opening up, up and down the industry food chain.  Barron’s modest prediction was that home prices “could turn up by spring 2013.”  CMV believes that Barron’s is well behind the curve.  By fall Phoenix and other major markets will see price increases that will confound most experts.

As CMV has previously reported, the “Great American REFI” by Fannie and Freddie will also have a major impact on the market.  Ted Canto at Academy Mortgage told CMV, when asked about his demand for REFIs, “I’m swamped. People are all over it.”  Another company reported in their radio ad that they had $100,000,000 in REFI applications.  The two taxpayer-owned GSEs have also announced that they are going ahead with plans to sell off packages of foreclosed homes to investors to be used as rentals.  It is anticipated that these homes will be sold in lots of 5,000 to 10,000 to institutional buyers as well as hedge funds with a minimum bid of two billion dollars according to Bob Chapman who is Editor of The International Forecaster.  Chapman believes that the sale of 250,000 to one-half a million homes to investors will result in the deterioration of home prices and  prolong the agony in the real estate market.  CMV does not agree.  We see the opposite impact assuming that these homes becoming rentals and not for sale and the absence of inventory will propel home prices higher.

There’s a big of irony and angst here.  One could assume that some of these packages could end up in the hands of the same investors who played a role in the sale of the tranches of toxic sub-prime debt that caused the market collapse in 2008.  Barron’s estimates that some $7.4 trillion in homeowner’s equity was destroyed in the housing collapse.  It hardly seems fair that most homeowners will only recover a small portion of this amount but then again FAIR is what you take your kids to.  FAIR has replaced the Rule of Law.


The Myth Maker Meets The Myth Buster


Ben Bernanke, the Chairman of the US Federal Reserve Bank, is presently conducting a series of four lectures at George Washington University entitled “The Federal Reserve & The Financial Crisis.”  Paul Brodsky, who has graced these pages with his acute insight in prior issues, has written a nine page critique that debunks Bernanke’s attempt to perpetuate Fed myths long held to be gospel by those who should know better.  Paul and his partner at QB Asset Management, Lee Quaintance, said in their March, 2012 review titled “BB (Ben Bernanke) Gun”:

“...the lecture was woefully incomplete, diversionary and often times disingenuous...we think our anticipated macroeconomic outcome will be ignored and denied by public policy makers up until the time they are forced to adopt it and take ownership of it.  The math and political expediency behind significant inflation, policy administered hyper-inflation and maybe even conversion to a new monetary system are too compelling to ignore.”

You may recall that CMV feature in its’ October, 2011 issue Brodsky’s call for the US government’s purchase of all privately held gold at $10,000/oz to establish a new credible monetary system.

A profound summary of Paul and Lee’s expos√© of BB’s myth was well articulated as follows:

“Our business, as fiduciaries, is allocating capital based on relative value within the macroeconomic environment we see as likely. In our opinion Mr. Bernanke’s lecture last Monday perpetuated bad or unimportant data, implied impossible outcomes, and was quite self-serving in its conclusions. His description of history was incomplete, his extrapolations were baseless, and his arguments were quite weak. (Ultimately we believe Fed policy will migrate — or be suddenly reversed — to meet the consequences of its current policies.)

As we pointed out only a few weeks ago following Warren Buffett’s unsolicited gold comments, (“Golden Boy”), and in December 2009 following Nouriel Roubini’s assertion that a gold bubble was about to pop (“Roubini Rebuttal”), gold is simply money – a savings (not investment) vehicle, a means of storing purchasing power in a time of paper money dilution. That’s it. Central banks compete directly with gold ownership because they manufacture competing savings vehicles in the form of baseless paper money. For the past twelve years global wealth holders have been converting their savings in increasing amounts from paper media of exchange (or financial assets denominated in them) to gold and natural resources. Why? Because central banks must dilute the purchasing power of their currencies to de-leverage the global banking system.”

Over the past few years Americans have been bombarded with neologisms (newly created words) used by the Fed to diffuse and distract the American public from the more easily understood event and consequence of money printing.  First, it was “Quantitative Easing” one and two.  Then, it was “Operation Twist.”  Now, we’re introduced to “Sterilized Bonds.”  What in the world is this latest concoction of BB and his madmen linguisticians?  The Wall St. Journal dutifully accommodates the Fed by defining these bonds:

“Federal Reserve officials are considering a new type of bond-buying program designed to subdue worries about future inflation if they decide to take new steps to boost the economy in the months ahead.

Under the new approach, the Fed would print new money to buy long-term mortgage or Treasury bonds but effectively tie up that money by borrowing it back for short periods at low rates. The aim of such an approach would be to relieve anxieties that money printing could fuel inflation later, a fear widely expressed by critics of the Fed's previous efforts to aid the recovery.” – March 7, 2012, WSJ by Jon Hilsenrath.

The bottom line is simply this: The US Treasury is running a cash flow deficit of about $5 billion a day and given the Administration’s recent budget proposal the deficit will increase in the years ahead.  Who on earth will buy Treasury debt with the prospect of rising interest rates and ultimate hyper-inflation and default?  The lender of last resort – the Federal Reserve.  The US dollar has lost 97% of its’ value since the Federal Reserve Bank was established one hundred years ago.  As Paul and Lee also conclude, the Fed must continue, at an accelerated rate, to dilute the purchasing power of our money to de-leverage our banking system and all of us are paying for it!

Sector Overview


1.  Cash & Fixed Income: (Preservation of Capital & Income)
    During March there was a surge in the yield on the 10 Year T-Note from below 2.00% to 2.40% which rattled the fixed income markets as there was a perceived forecast of inflation. The USD rallied briefly on the increase then rates fell back to under 2.20% as the quarter ended and the USD slumped.  Contrary to most market analysts, it appears to CMV that there is a growing momentum in the US economy that must manifest itself in higher yields in this Sector.  Keep a close eye on the 10 Year T-Note as a true barometer.

2.  US Equities: (Moderate Growth, Stability, Capital Gains)
    Please re-read the Market Overview to get a picture of the unexpected out-performance of this Sector in Q1.  In a detailed 40-page report Goldman Sachs offered a ringing endorsement for US stocks calling for a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for investors to switch from bonds into stocks.  Goldman’s argument is largely based on valuation.  CMV believes that the rally is liquidity induced and negative interest rates.  This report is contrary to mutual-fund-flow data released by the Investment Company Institute which showed money still pouring out of US stock funds and into bond funds.  This is one rare instance where CMV will agree with GS. The fear that rising interest rates will choke off the rally in stocks is unwarranted. The first time the S&P 500 hit 1400 in 1999 (which it did again on March 30, 2012) the 10 Year T-Note was at 5.70% – a far cry from the current 2.20% which Mr. Bernanke has assured us will remain intact until late 2014.

3.  International Equities: (Aggressive Growth, Capital Gains)
    As far as the Pacific Rim (ex Japan) is concerned, all the focus is on China which we featured in the April 2, 2012 Podcast and the Market Overview on page 2.  Hook or by crook, China will reflate its’ economy and the fears of revolution and economic collapse will be just a blip on their radar.  China is experiencing its’ first taste of capitalism’s’ sweet and sour sauce but its’ positioning itself to ignite a fire under the dragon.

The EU is entering anew phase. The pain in Spain is mainly in the plain [sight].  The EU’s fourth largest economy is struggling to stay afloat and keep the rioters at bay.  The ECB can’t bailout all the PIIGS.  Although EU equities have performed well in Q1, continued problems in Spain, Italy  and Portugal could mean trouble.

4.  Hard Assets: (Aggressive Growth, Sector, Capital Gains)
    The big story in March for this Sector is the demonizing of speculators and the greedy oil companies that have manipulated the price of crude and caused higher gas prices.  As we write, the President has called for the 59th investigation into collusion within the industry.  No one in the US government wants to admit that the deliberate devaluation of the USD is the principal cause of rising gas prices and that situation is going to continue and accelerate if the China currency “deal” becomes reality.  The Iran/Israeli nuke confrontation lies on the horizon and could be explosive.

5.  Precious Metals: (Aggressive Growth, High Volatility, High Risk)
    This Sector took a significant hit in March for a number of reasons.  Some are obvious and predictable. Others are subtle and non-transparent.  First the obvious.

As reported on page 8 an unexpected surge in interest rates strengthened the USD and gold bullion and its’ sister metals declined.  This is a direct correlation that has played out over the past  10 years.  At some point in the near future there will be a bifurcation and Au and the PMs will rise despite the increase in interest rates.  The extreme example, of course, was during the period 1976 to 1980.  Au rose from about $100/oz to $850/oz while the bank prime rate rose from 8% to 21.5% by 1980.  Could this happen again?  Certainly.  But there’s no guarantee.

An unexpected cause for bullion to decline was a strike in India.  Gold sellers in that country closed all their shops to protest their government’s decision to boost levies on sales of all PMs.  India doubled its’ import duty on gold to 4% and instituted a 0.3% tax on all gold sales.  Approximately 300,000 proprietors and all their employees were impacted.  India accounts for about 25% of global gold demand – 933 metric tonnes in 2011!

Another is the perception that the economic fatigue experienced in China would also result in a cut in that government’s purchase of Au.  There has been no indication that that has been the case. CMV is of the opinion that the Chinese government would use the discounted price to add to their growing inventory.

Barron’s, in its’ Commodities Corner column, on March 19, 2012, reported that there’s a rising demand for Palladium and they expect to see a 20% jump in futures prices this year.  About 50% of all Palladium production goes into making catalytic converters for cars and trucks as well as increased demand in electronics.  Russia has been the world’s largest producer of PAL but rumors persist that either the mines there have exhausted their supply, or the Rooskies are withholding delivery for higher prices.

All of these negative factors are temporary.  The global debasement of fiat currencies will, in CMV’s opinion, accelerate.  The entire PM complex is destined to go much higher.

6.  Commodities: (Aggressive Growth, High Volatility, High Risk)
    Despite a concerted effort by the Department of Labor Statistics, the Fed and the present Administration to convince the American public that there’s no inflation, the “inflation Jeannie” is out of the bottle.  Agribusiness stocks have maintained their value despite the attempt to talk down prices.  The major exception however, is cattle and hog prices. Live cattle, in particular, have plunged in price in March despite the fact that the drought in the Southwestern US has decimated herds.  Observers and ranchers have to question the Department of Agriculture’s (DOA) recent report on inventory to control prices and the pink slime additive scare.  In a somewhat related issue the DOA proudly reported that they had distributed the greatest amount of food stamps in history.  Meanwhile, the Forest Service, also a part of DOA, asks the public, “Please do not feed the animals because the animals may become dependent and not learn to take care of themselves.”  (CMV couldn’t mss this opportunity.)

A harbinger of things of come is evident in California where the Central Valley Project (San Joaquin Valley) recently announced that there would be a 70% reduction in the farmer’s water allocation for 2012 whereas the farmers received 85% of their allocation last year.  Hundreds of thousands of acres will go fallow and an equal amount of farm workers will be unemployed.  The San Joaquin Valley is the largest producer of fruits and vegetables in the Nation.  We in the Western US can plan to see food prices escalate even higher as Nancy Pelosi revels that the Delta Wetlands and the smelt (fish) have the first priority call on the water from the Sacramento River.

7.  Real Estate: (Aggressive Growth, Income, Illiquidity)
    Please refer to page 5 for a focus on this Sector.  CMV took a bold contrarian position very early on this Sector and it has been rewarding.  Who picked home builders a year ago?  Barring events unseen at this juncture, we see residential sales and price increases outperforming all estimates in the Phoenix Metro area and general improvement throughout most areas of the country.  By late summer we’ll hear the word “bubble” again in the Valley of the Sun.

8.  Special Situations:  (High Risk, High Potential, Capital Gains)
    At present there isn’t a more “unloved” Sub-Sector than gold and silver exploration companies.  Many have reported exceptional drilling results but the market doesn’t recognize the value. Two things have to happen to change the stock price.  1) Gold and silver bullion needs to move toward their all-time highs, and 2) producers make an offer to buy the company or a portion of their property.  Most senior producers desperately need reserves and are willing to pay a very high price for proven reserves in the ground.  As the bullion price accelerates expect acquisitions to follow.

One Sub-Sector that flourished during the month was Rare Earth Elements (REEs). The US, Japan, and the EU have filed a complaint against China at the World Trade Organization over Chinese restrictions on shipments of raw materials including REEs. China has threatened a “backlash” instead of settling the rift.  China presently controls 96% of the world’s REEs but the US has several advanced exploration companies that could become acquisition candidates.  This is a Sector that commands your attention.

Another positive Sub-Sector with promising upside is Uranium (Ux).  Barron’s in its’ March 22, 2012 Commodities Corner column reports that there are now 435 operating rectors world-wide, 61 under construction and another 162 are planned or on order.  Supply of nuclear fuel (U3O8) is being depleted and demand now exceeds mine supply.  Ux is now around $50/pound with estimates of $70 within two years.

The bottom line is that global natural resources are being depleted at an exponential rate.  The recent video, “The Last 5 Minutes” that CMV  shared with its readers should have been a real eye-opener.  Lake Mead holds about 14 trillion gallons of water.  If one drop leaked out in one second and the leak doubled every second, how long would it take to empty Lake Mead?  57 minutes!  And, if you were in a boat on the lake afer 50 minutes had passed, you wouldn’t even realize the water level was declining.  In the last 5 minutes the lake would go dry.  That’s what will happen to oil, copper, uranium, gold, iron ore and most of the earth’s natural resources! Get it?

* * *
Introduction To The CMV

    A CONTRARIAN is someone who looks at things differently than the majority of people.  That definition fits H. L. Quist and CMV perfectly.  In market parlance when 80 to 90% of  investors are certain that the market is going to continue upward, the contrarian heads the other direction.  Conversely, when the news is about as bad as it can get, the true contrarian is usually on the ground floor buying.  That’s what you can expect from H. L. Quist’s Contrarian Market View (CMV).



H. L. Quist’s Contrarian Market View Newsletter is available by request at no charge.





Disclaimer: This commentary is provided for informational and educational purposes only. The information, analysis and opinions expressed herein reflect our judgment as of the date of writing and are subject to change at any time without notice. They are not intended to constitute legal, tax, securities or investment advice or a recommended course of action in any given situation. All investments carry a certain risk and there is no assurance that an investment will provide positive performance over any period of time. Information obtained from third party resources are believed to be reliable but not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. H. L. Quist is an investment advisor representative of Dynamic Wealth Advisors, a registered investment advisor. Mr. Quist offers investment advisory services through Dynamic Wealth Advisors. Dynamic Wealth Advisors is not affiliated with CMV and does not make any representations about the content of CMV's newsletters or provide any information or advice to CMV. 

H. L. Quist
Investment Advisor Representative

hlquist@dynamicwealthadvisors.com

4 comments:

indianist said...

There are lot factors to be considered before looking for the right time to sell mutual funds without ever rushing fast to sell your mutual fund units. If anyone is aware of mutual funds and its selling methods there are top 7 factors that decides the profit of the mutual fund.

nirmaladevi said...

I am having 100 Mutual Fund units but the share is going down, pls tell which is the right time to sell Mutual Fund units? Pls give some tips

indianist said...

Can someone suggest me which is the right time and when to sell mutual funds that I have bought recently??

James Rich said...

Nice Post! There are several benefits to winning an SBIR grant or contract. The small business doesn’t have to pay back the funds or give up a percentage of equity in the business. Will your bank fund you once a Bank Guarantee is received from Selective Financial Services, issued by one of the major world banks, and do you have 0,1% of the Bank Guarantee value available, in cash in your account right now? You may qualify for this unique leasing service