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We just posted a new video - see the side bar, or go to Youtube to view and also watch previous video posts.
Is this the end of the Western-Centric Fiat Money system, and America as we knew it?
To contact me with your financial questions, email to hlquist at djmwealth dot com.
-- H. L. Quist
Showing posts with label economy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label economy. Show all posts
Friday, March 25, 2011
Tuesday, March 15, 2011
CMV - URGENT - Special Bulletin
H. L. Quist has just issued an URGENT - SPECIAL BULLETIN to his CMV subscribers. Blog followers may be interested in this information.
Contact at the end.
March 15, 2011
H. L. Quist’s
Contrarian Market View
Newsletter
H. L. Quist’s
Contrarian Market View
Newsletter
URGENT – SPECIAL BULLETIN
The fallout from the ongoing disaster in Japan has caused a flight to the safety of cash in the global financial markets. CMV's recommendation to SELL all US equities, (except FAIRX), all Uranium stocks and Bonds at the open on Monday March, 14 was timely.
The sell-off at this point has included all natural resources including oil, precious metals and rare earths. Gold sold off as much as $44/oz early March 15 and as of this moment has rallied back $15/oz to $1395/oz. CMV believes that gold and silver should rally once the panic subsides therefore all names are HOLD. CMV also believes that once a rational assessment of the fundamentals takes place the debtor nations; Japan, the European Union, and the US will be forced to monetize massive amounts of their own debt to head off a deflationary contraction in their economies. The result could be highly inflationary and lead eventually to a "crack-up-boom".
HOLD your present positions in Sectors 4,5,6, 7 and 8. Wait for the panic to subside. ADD or BUY on weakness.
Financial Questions:
hlquist at djmwealth dot com
Saturday, July 3, 2010
Free Preview Of CMV for July
Hello World,
Here is a free preview of the July issue of the Contrarian Market View Newsletter. (Due to the format limitations of a blog, the actual newsletter is better looking.)
See the bottom for a free book offer with purchase of a subscription to the newsletter.
Amidst the rioting and chaos of the G-20 meeting in Toronto, President Obama was attempting to convince the Europeans that they should resort to a new round of Keynesian deficit spending. Somewhat surprisingly, the Euros have had their fill of stimulus and more debt and they now sense the light at the end of the tunnel is a train that is about to leave the track. The EU contributes 20% of the world's GDP. Higher levels of debt and slower growth are a formula for a train wreck and the Euros are desperately trying to minimize the damage. They now acknowledge that their Socialist Economic Model has failed, but the Captain of our ship is resolute. Damn the torpedoes and charge, charge, charge ahead.
As CMV has well-documented, John Maynard Keynes was a fraud and his economic model failed in the 1930s Great Depression, in the 1960s Great Society, and the Carter Malaise of the 1970s. History, hopefully, will soon record the final demise of the Keynesianism model after the Obama administration's "New Deal II" ends. Then the survivors can drive a stake into this blood-sucking Keynesian Dracula whose promise of an ever-lasting nirvana has drained all the source of capital from the system.
CMV has often compared the 1980-1982 deep recession to the 2008-2009 time period. After significant tax cuts in 1982 the US GDP grew as follows in comparison to 2009-2010:
1983
First QT 5.1%
Second QT 9.3%
Third QT 8.1%
Fourth QT 8.5%
2009
Third QT 2.2%
Fourth QT 5.6%
2010
First QT 2.7%
Second QT ?*
*The Second Quarter GDP and Corporate Earnings should be positive reflecting the momentum prior to the reversal outlined by CMV in the May issue. The Second Half of 2010 could be negative given events stated in July's CMV.
Americans were told by President Obama that government spending would produce a "multiplier effect" and that $1 of spending would produce $1.50 of growth. Not only has there been no real growth the multiplier has been negative. The Federal debt has now ballooned to over $13 trillion and the budget deficit is so alarming the President has ordered that there will be no budget for Fiscal Year 2011 until after the November elections. His Budget Director, Peter Orsag has resigned, possibly fearing the worst. The President's strategy? Raise income taxes and initiate a Value Added Tax (VAT)! Look for negative GDP numbers in 2011 if he is successful.
Here are some notable economic statistics and trends for June:
6/30/10
Consumer Confidence 52.9
Personal Savings 4.0%
Purch. Mgrs Index 59.0
Construction Spending -0.7% (est)
Payrolls -125,000
Unemployment 9.5% *
Factory Orders 0.5%
Previous Period
Consumer Confidence 63.3
Personal Savings 3.8%
Purch. Mgrs Index 59.7
Construction Spending 2.7%
Payrolls 431,000
Unemployment 9.7%
Factory Orders 1.2%
* Unemployment rate fell because 652,000 people gave up searching for a job and are not counted
as unemployed.
CMV's conclusion looking forward near term is:
Deficits and Debt will rise exponentially
Lower Nominal GDP
Lower Capital spending and Risk Investment
Increasing Dis-inflationary Pressure
Continued Loss of Confidence in the President and Congress
With the Fed funds and discount rate near zero the only course of action available to this administration is to tax, print money and devalue the dollar. The result? Massive inflation and the prospect of hyperinflation after the "Double Dip" Recession.
Hidden in all the clamor over the rush to prevent another financial crisis in the future is the neglect to recognize how we got to this point in the first place.
After the stock market crash of 1929 and the start of the Great Depression in 1930, the suffering American public demanded an investigation into the cause of the financial collapse. After several attempts to find the always elusive truth, an assistant attorney for New York County, Ferdinand Pecora, was given broad subpoena power to call witnesses and he called the key Masters of the Universe to testify. The hearings exposed a wide range of abuses by the banks and their affiliates of underwriting speculative securities to pay off bad bank loans as well as "pool operations" to support the price of bank stocks. As a result, Congress passed the Glass-Steagall Banking Act of 1933 to separate commercial and investment banking so that banks could no longer deal in all forms of securities. In addition the Securities Act of 1933 and the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 were also passed as a watchdog for speculation that had run amok. Glass-Steagall kept the banks out of high risk trading until its repeal on November 12, 1999.
Who was the strongest proponent of getting the banks back into the highly leveraged and speculative game? None other than the nation's number one banker-in-chief, Alan Greenspan, who insisted that the banks had to have the ability to trade and expand their derivative positions. The bill to repeal the Act was co-sponsored by Phil Gramm (R-Tx) and Jim Leach (R-Iowa) and signed by President Bill Clinton. It's CMV's opinion that the collapse of our financial system would NOT have been near as severe if commercial banks had not participated in trading highly leveraged subprime debt and derivatives.
So here we are 77 years later in search of a solution to the same problem. By the time that you read CMV the Financial Reform Act of 2010 (the Dodd-Frank bill) probably will be law.
Will it be a cure-all? No.
Will it give more power to the government to seize or liquidate a financial institution? Yes.
Will it limit the power of the banks to make risky investments and limit trading of derivatives? Yes.
Will it limit economic growth? Yes.
But the perception (amongst investors and bankers) is that these institutions will be able to navigate around the law successfully which is evidenced by the fact that when an agreement was reached the shares of bank and brokerage stocks were up 2.7% on a day that the market was flat. CMV forecasts that the new law will be tested within the year.
Conspicuously absent from the discussion about the new law was the collapse of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. It's no wonder given that the key player in reform, Barney Frank, was the point man in the failure of the "evil twins." It was Frank's insistence of increased quotas for subprime loans and his aiding the cover-up of the "cooking of the books" at Fannie that has burdened the US taxpayer with what will become a trillion dollar black hole. Reform should include the banishment of all of those in Congress who played such a critical role in the collapse.
The Business Roundtable (BRT) is an association of chief executive officers of leading US corporations now chaired by Ivan Seidenburg who is also the CEO of Verizon. The BRT had allied itself with the Obama Administration very early in the game even supporting Obamacare, climate change legislation and other issues that normally big business would have condemned. You may recall that The Myth Buster spoke disparagingly about the "sellout" by General Electric, Wal-Mart, Pfizer and others who were seeking "sweet heart deals" from the Administration in exchange for their support of the President's policies. The BRT has now discovered (surprise, surprise) that they've been played for a "patsy."
In a speech delivered recently to the Economic Club of Washington, Seidenburg said that he had become "somewhat troubled by a disconnect between Washington and the business community." Apparently the BRT realized they had been had when the House passed a $14 billion tax on companies that operate overseas! In response, the BRT fired off a 54 page report describing literally hundreds of "actions and decisions" that Washington has taken to hurt the economy. The BRT may have discovered finally that they are not only a target for additional tax revenue but they are capitalist dinosaurs who could become extinct in a collectivist state.
Companies represented in the BRT have a cash horde of $1.5 trillion in their coffers. Few of these companies are willing to invest this capital in new equipment, expansion and new hiring given the "uncertainty" in Washington. "Double Dip" is not a treat at Baskin-Robbins.
This was a 1975 movie starring Sean Connery as Daniel Dravot, Michael Caine as Peachy Carnahan, and Christopher Plummer as Rudyard Kipling.
Your writer has often used popular movies, myths and fables to poignantly illustrate the folly and fallacies of political characters. It is particularly enjoyable to read another writer's use of this technique at such an appropriate time. Bret Stephens, writing for the Wall St. Journal (Global View) effectively compares Barack Obama to "The Man Who Would be King."
Taken from Rudyard Kipling's short story this film feature a young Sean Connery as Daniel Dravot and Michael Caine as Peachy Carnahan, two trouble-making soldiers of the British Raj (circa 1860s) who set out on an insane and improbable adventure to become kings in a remote section of Afghanistan. (An area that could easily be the hideout of Osama bin Laden today.) Their mission was as improbable as that of Mr. Obama. Stephens says of the President:
"...his parents improbable love; his own improbable journey; America's improbable hope; ...yet Mr. Obama would never come near the White House had his story been any more probable."
Carnahan and Dravot endear themselves to the villagers in Uneb by leading them to military victories over their hated enemies. In one scene that your writer vividly recalls from the movie (after 35 years) Dravot takes an arrow directly in his chest while leading his rag-tag army of Kafiristanis. He neither falls nor does he bleed from his probable fatal wound. The ignorant natives believe that Daniel must be a God since he doesn't bleed and they fall on their knees and hail him as their king. Seizing the opportunity Daniel tells the natives that he is the son of Alexander the Great and is then endowed with all the gold and riches left by Alexander in 328 BC. What he didn't reveal to his new faithful was the steel armor that protected him under his flowing native robe.
Peachy and Daniel, however, ultimately exhibit the frailties of mortals. Ego, greed, and lust drive Daniel to demand a bride who then proceeds to bite the king on his neck and he bleeds. The priests rant, "neither God nor Devil, but a man!" and the ruse is revealed. It didn't matter that Peachy and Daniel were successful in bringing order and justice to the warring tribes. Gods are held to a different standard.
Stephens says:
"Just so in what was the cult of Obama. He was supposed to stand above partisan politics as the ultimate uniter. He was supposed to eschew the temptations of executive privilege and authority, as a believer and in the sanctity of the constitutional principle. He was supposed to make America beloved again in the world, as the embodiment of a biracial, transcultural identity. He was supposed to make the oceans recede and the planet heal, as a champion of environmental good sense."
"No mortal politician would have been expected to fulfill even a fraction of these promises and by that measure Mr. Obama has not disappointed. But it says something about the expectations that Mr. Obama once evoked that he should now be crucified on his Cross of Hope."
In a bit of irony, Peachy was caught by the monks who then crucify him. After surviving for a day, the monks cut Peachy down and he makes it back to civilization with Daniel's head and his crown still intact.
Stephens concludes his piece cryptically:
"When its (Obama's political career) history is written, the marvel will be how quickly he seduced a nation and how quickly he lost it. There really is no marvel at all. He is, or was, the man who would be king."
The Audacity of Hope is not only fading it has, as this writer forecast in his last book, become the Mendacity of Hope. As the Nation awaited the President's message from the Oval Office to address the oil spill, expectations were that he would be "royal" and demonstrate that he was a man in charge. Instead, the man who would be king was robotic, awkward and unsure of himself. His body language foretold a pending doom. The left suddenly choose to begin to distance themselves from the exalted one.
The Huffington Post: "Profoundly under-whelming...A feeble call to action." Robert Reich (former Secretary of Labor) "Vapid...a man who had electrified a nation in prior speeches had this time put it to sleep."
Just as the Business Roundtable Executives have come to their conclusions, small business owners and ordinary Americans believe that the President's objective is to destroy capitalism and replace the Nation's business model with collectivism.
THE CMV RECOMMENDATIONS
Since January 1, 2010, the CMV Recommended list has tracked the S&P 500 both registering a 10% gain by the middle of April and declining to a -5% return at the end of May. With the sharp decline in the S&P 500 at the end of June however, the CMV has appreciated 3% while the S&P 500 index has fallen 8%. CMV expects this divergence to widen. If you need assistance or advice given the potential for a Major Market decline, please call (602) 840-4117.
Free Books Offer! Click here to subscribe to the CMV monthly newsletter for one year - only $99.00 AND receive a copy of The Aftermath of Greed: Get Ready For The Coming Inflationary Boom and How To Profit From The Coming Inflationary Boom and Avoid the Next Crash, Free with free shipping - This free book offer is open to US residents. Both books are shipped to a single address. Please remember to include your mailing address to receive the books when clicking on the link.
-- H. L. Quist
Here is a free preview of the July issue of the Contrarian Market View Newsletter. (Due to the format limitations of a blog, the actual newsletter is better looking.)
See the bottom for a free book offer with purchase of a subscription to the newsletter.
July, 2010
H. L. Quist's
Contrarian Market View
Newsletter
H. L. Quist's
Contrarian Market View
Newsletter
Market Overview
Amidst the rioting and chaos of the G-20 meeting in Toronto, President Obama was attempting to convince the Europeans that they should resort to a new round of Keynesian deficit spending. Somewhat surprisingly, the Euros have had their fill of stimulus and more debt and they now sense the light at the end of the tunnel is a train that is about to leave the track. The EU contributes 20% of the world's GDP. Higher levels of debt and slower growth are a formula for a train wreck and the Euros are desperately trying to minimize the damage. They now acknowledge that their Socialist Economic Model has failed, but the Captain of our ship is resolute. Damn the torpedoes and charge, charge, charge ahead.
As CMV has well-documented, John Maynard Keynes was a fraud and his economic model failed in the 1930s Great Depression, in the 1960s Great Society, and the Carter Malaise of the 1970s. History, hopefully, will soon record the final demise of the Keynesianism model after the Obama administration's "New Deal II" ends. Then the survivors can drive a stake into this blood-sucking Keynesian Dracula whose promise of an ever-lasting nirvana has drained all the source of capital from the system.
CMV has often compared the 1980-1982 deep recession to the 2008-2009 time period. After significant tax cuts in 1982 the US GDP grew as follows in comparison to 2009-2010:
1983
First QT 5.1%
Second QT 9.3%
Third QT 8.1%
Fourth QT 8.5%
2009
Third QT 2.2%
Fourth QT 5.6%
2010
First QT 2.7%
Second QT ?*
*The Second Quarter GDP and Corporate Earnings should be positive reflecting the momentum prior to the reversal outlined by CMV in the May issue. The Second Half of 2010 could be negative given events stated in July's CMV.
Americans were told by President Obama that government spending would produce a "multiplier effect" and that $1 of spending would produce $1.50 of growth. Not only has there been no real growth the multiplier has been negative. The Federal debt has now ballooned to over $13 trillion and the budget deficit is so alarming the President has ordered that there will be no budget for Fiscal Year 2011 until after the November elections. His Budget Director, Peter Orsag has resigned, possibly fearing the worst. The President's strategy? Raise income taxes and initiate a Value Added Tax (VAT)! Look for negative GDP numbers in 2011 if he is successful.
Here are some notable economic statistics and trends for June:
6/30/10
Consumer Confidence 52.9
Personal Savings 4.0%
Purch. Mgrs Index 59.0
Construction Spending -0.7% (est)
Payrolls -125,000
Unemployment 9.5% *
Factory Orders 0.5%
Previous Period
Consumer Confidence 63.3
Personal Savings 3.8%
Purch. Mgrs Index 59.7
Construction Spending 2.7%
Payrolls 431,000
Unemployment 9.7%
Factory Orders 1.2%
* Unemployment rate fell because 652,000 people gave up searching for a job and are not counted
as unemployed.
CMV's conclusion looking forward near term is:
Deficits and Debt will rise exponentially
Lower Nominal GDP
Lower Capital spending and Risk Investment
Increasing Dis-inflationary Pressure
Continued Loss of Confidence in the President and Congress
With the Fed funds and discount rate near zero the only course of action available to this administration is to tax, print money and devalue the dollar. The result? Massive inflation and the prospect of hyperinflation after the "Double Dip" Recession.
Financial Reform
Hidden in all the clamor over the rush to prevent another financial crisis in the future is the neglect to recognize how we got to this point in the first place.
After the stock market crash of 1929 and the start of the Great Depression in 1930, the suffering American public demanded an investigation into the cause of the financial collapse. After several attempts to find the always elusive truth, an assistant attorney for New York County, Ferdinand Pecora, was given broad subpoena power to call witnesses and he called the key Masters of the Universe to testify. The hearings exposed a wide range of abuses by the banks and their affiliates of underwriting speculative securities to pay off bad bank loans as well as "pool operations" to support the price of bank stocks. As a result, Congress passed the Glass-Steagall Banking Act of 1933 to separate commercial and investment banking so that banks could no longer deal in all forms of securities. In addition the Securities Act of 1933 and the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 were also passed as a watchdog for speculation that had run amok. Glass-Steagall kept the banks out of high risk trading until its repeal on November 12, 1999.
Who was the strongest proponent of getting the banks back into the highly leveraged and speculative game? None other than the nation's number one banker-in-chief, Alan Greenspan, who insisted that the banks had to have the ability to trade and expand their derivative positions. The bill to repeal the Act was co-sponsored by Phil Gramm (R-Tx) and Jim Leach (R-Iowa) and signed by President Bill Clinton. It's CMV's opinion that the collapse of our financial system would NOT have been near as severe if commercial banks had not participated in trading highly leveraged subprime debt and derivatives.
So here we are 77 years later in search of a solution to the same problem. By the time that you read CMV the Financial Reform Act of 2010 (the Dodd-Frank bill) probably will be law.
Will it be a cure-all? No.
Will it give more power to the government to seize or liquidate a financial institution? Yes.
Will it limit the power of the banks to make risky investments and limit trading of derivatives? Yes.
Will it limit economic growth? Yes.
But the perception (amongst investors and bankers) is that these institutions will be able to navigate around the law successfully which is evidenced by the fact that when an agreement was reached the shares of bank and brokerage stocks were up 2.7% on a day that the market was flat. CMV forecasts that the new law will be tested within the year.
Conspicuously absent from the discussion about the new law was the collapse of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. It's no wonder given that the key player in reform, Barney Frank, was the point man in the failure of the "evil twins." It was Frank's insistence of increased quotas for subprime loans and his aiding the cover-up of the "cooking of the books" at Fannie that has burdened the US taxpayer with what will become a trillion dollar black hole. Reform should include the banishment of all of those in Congress who played such a critical role in the collapse.
The Business Roundtable
The Business Roundtable (BRT) is an association of chief executive officers of leading US corporations now chaired by Ivan Seidenburg who is also the CEO of Verizon. The BRT had allied itself with the Obama Administration very early in the game even supporting Obamacare, climate change legislation and other issues that normally big business would have condemned. You may recall that The Myth Buster spoke disparagingly about the "sellout" by General Electric, Wal-Mart, Pfizer and others who were seeking "sweet heart deals" from the Administration in exchange for their support of the President's policies. The BRT has now discovered (surprise, surprise) that they've been played for a "patsy."
In a speech delivered recently to the Economic Club of Washington, Seidenburg said that he had become "somewhat troubled by a disconnect between Washington and the business community." Apparently the BRT realized they had been had when the House passed a $14 billion tax on companies that operate overseas! In response, the BRT fired off a 54 page report describing literally hundreds of "actions and decisions" that Washington has taken to hurt the economy. The BRT may have discovered finally that they are not only a target for additional tax revenue but they are capitalist dinosaurs who could become extinct in a collectivist state.
Companies represented in the BRT have a cash horde of $1.5 trillion in their coffers. Few of these companies are willing to invest this capital in new equipment, expansion and new hiring given the "uncertainty" in Washington. "Double Dip" is not a treat at Baskin-Robbins.
The Man Who Would Be King
This was a 1975 movie starring Sean Connery as Daniel Dravot, Michael Caine as Peachy Carnahan, and Christopher Plummer as Rudyard Kipling.
Your writer has often used popular movies, myths and fables to poignantly illustrate the folly and fallacies of political characters. It is particularly enjoyable to read another writer's use of this technique at such an appropriate time. Bret Stephens, writing for the Wall St. Journal (Global View) effectively compares Barack Obama to "The Man Who Would be King."
Taken from Rudyard Kipling's short story this film feature a young Sean Connery as Daniel Dravot and Michael Caine as Peachy Carnahan, two trouble-making soldiers of the British Raj (circa 1860s) who set out on an insane and improbable adventure to become kings in a remote section of Afghanistan. (An area that could easily be the hideout of Osama bin Laden today.) Their mission was as improbable as that of Mr. Obama. Stephens says of the President:
"...his parents improbable love; his own improbable journey; America's improbable hope; ...yet Mr. Obama would never come near the White House had his story been any more probable."
Carnahan and Dravot endear themselves to the villagers in Uneb by leading them to military victories over their hated enemies. In one scene that your writer vividly recalls from the movie (after 35 years) Dravot takes an arrow directly in his chest while leading his rag-tag army of Kafiristanis. He neither falls nor does he bleed from his probable fatal wound. The ignorant natives believe that Daniel must be a God since he doesn't bleed and they fall on their knees and hail him as their king. Seizing the opportunity Daniel tells the natives that he is the son of Alexander the Great and is then endowed with all the gold and riches left by Alexander in 328 BC. What he didn't reveal to his new faithful was the steel armor that protected him under his flowing native robe.
Peachy and Daniel, however, ultimately exhibit the frailties of mortals. Ego, greed, and lust drive Daniel to demand a bride who then proceeds to bite the king on his neck and he bleeds. The priests rant, "neither God nor Devil, but a man!" and the ruse is revealed. It didn't matter that Peachy and Daniel were successful in bringing order and justice to the warring tribes. Gods are held to a different standard.
Stephens says:
"Just so in what was the cult of Obama. He was supposed to stand above partisan politics as the ultimate uniter. He was supposed to eschew the temptations of executive privilege and authority, as a believer and in the sanctity of the constitutional principle. He was supposed to make America beloved again in the world, as the embodiment of a biracial, transcultural identity. He was supposed to make the oceans recede and the planet heal, as a champion of environmental good sense."
"No mortal politician would have been expected to fulfill even a fraction of these promises and by that measure Mr. Obama has not disappointed. But it says something about the expectations that Mr. Obama once evoked that he should now be crucified on his Cross of Hope."
In a bit of irony, Peachy was caught by the monks who then crucify him. After surviving for a day, the monks cut Peachy down and he makes it back to civilization with Daniel's head and his crown still intact.
Stephens concludes his piece cryptically:
"When its (Obama's political career) history is written, the marvel will be how quickly he seduced a nation and how quickly he lost it. There really is no marvel at all. He is, or was, the man who would be king."
The Audacity of Hope is not only fading it has, as this writer forecast in his last book, become the Mendacity of Hope. As the Nation awaited the President's message from the Oval Office to address the oil spill, expectations were that he would be "royal" and demonstrate that he was a man in charge. Instead, the man who would be king was robotic, awkward and unsure of himself. His body language foretold a pending doom. The left suddenly choose to begin to distance themselves from the exalted one.
The Huffington Post: "Profoundly under-whelming...A feeble call to action." Robert Reich (former Secretary of Labor) "Vapid...a man who had electrified a nation in prior speeches had this time put it to sleep."
Just as the Business Roundtable Executives have come to their conclusions, small business owners and ordinary Americans believe that the President's objective is to destroy capitalism and replace the Nation's business model with collectivism.
THE CMV RECOMMENDATIONS
Since January 1, 2010, the CMV Recommended list has tracked the S&P 500 both registering a 10% gain by the middle of April and declining to a -5% return at the end of May. With the sharp decline in the S&P 500 at the end of June however, the CMV has appreciated 3% while the S&P 500 index has fallen 8%. CMV expects this divergence to widen. If you need assistance or advice given the potential for a Major Market decline, please call (602) 840-4117.
Free Books Offer! Click here to subscribe to the CMV monthly newsletter for one year - only $99.00 AND receive a copy of The Aftermath of Greed: Get Ready For The Coming Inflationary Boom and How To Profit From The Coming Inflationary Boom and Avoid the Next Crash, Free with free shipping - This free book offer is open to US residents. Both books are shipped to a single address. Please remember to include your mailing address to receive the books when clicking on the link.
-- H. L. Quist
Friday, April 2, 2010
Free Preview of April CMV Newsletter
Hello World,
FREE PREVIEW of the April CMV Newsletter section. (The recommended list is available only to paid subscribers.) (The actual newsletter is better looking, due to the limitations of blog posts.)
We are repeating our offer of a free copy of "The Aftermath of Greed" and "How to Profit From The Coming Inflationary Boom" with a paid subscription to the Contrarian Market View e-Newsletter -- a $140 value for the price of $99. This offer is open to US residents (books shipped to a single address only) and will be available for a limited time only.
Here is the link to subscribe today http://bit.ly/CMVyearbook
.
The Economy:
Double Dip or Skinny Dip? In market terms, is the economy headed for a second recession or is a recovery at hand and is it time to jump back into the pool? (Swimsuit or not!) Contrary to a plethora of pundits who maintain that the US is on the precipice of financial collapse, CMV believes that the economy is going to surprise on the upside. We were courageous and correct when we re-committed to the equity market on April 1, 2009, and firmly believe that the economy will continue to outperform its' most vocal critics.
There's no question that portents of gloom and doom from Conservatives — particularly since the passage of Obamacare --- have obscured the positive. Be assured, CMV has not switched allegiance and moved to the left. Our position has always been consistent — when addressing the issue of money, you must separate political ideology from economic reality. A little history to make the case in point.
1975 - 1977
The oil embargo and Nixon's self-inflicted crisis and humiliation sent the economy and the markets into a free fall. The Dow fell 50% and the real estate market gave your writer the opportunity to buy a bankrupt premium residential property in Phoenix for $22/sq. Ft. Despite the election of a Trilateral Socialist as President who resurrected (again) John Maynard Keynes, we experienced a V correction within those two years. Look at the charts. The Dow rebounded 100% off its lows. And, by 1978 the real estate and commodity markets (Gold to $850/oz) were going ballistic despite rapidly rising interest rates. The prime rate rose to 21.5% and mortgage rates to 17% by 1980. Of course, the inflationary ‘crack-up boom' followed in 1980, but those investors and pundits who focused on the political and fiscal ineptitude of Jimmy Carter, missed the boat to Omaha. (Buffet discovered value investing in Omaha during this time period.)
1983 - 1985
The Recession of 1980-82 initially was a nightmare for Ronald Reagan. Official unemployment of 10.4% was higher then than the peak experienced in 2009. Despite Paul Volker's determination to kill the inflation dragon with high interest rates, the GDP jumped to 5.1% in the first quarter of 1983, 9.3% in the second quarter and remained at an incredible 8% for the next three quarters. The Garn- St. Germain Act, Supply Side Economics, Michael Milkin and The Plaza Accord were the stimulants which led to Black Monday in 1987, and the real estate collapse of 1989. The recovery in 1983 to 1985 was indeed robust and we suspect that those liberals hoping for Reagonomics to fail also missed the boat to Omaha.
1991 - 1993
The collapse of the real estate market — primarily commercial — the enactment of FIRREA (Financial Institution Reform and Recovery Enforcement Act) which formed the Resolution Trust Corp and closed 747 banks and thrifts in the US, created a similar mind-set amongst the real estate industry that exists today. Your writer forecast a real estate boom in 1992, which proved to be the longest and most profitable period in real property value growth in US history. It also marked the beginning of the .com bubble. Another robust recovery for those that had vision and courage and took a Contrarian view in 1991. (Isn't that what this is all about?)
2002 - 2005
The bursting of the .com bubble beginning March, 2000 followed by 9-11 brought a new level of negative psyche to all markets. "The Greenspan Plan," so named by this writer, was a deliberate strategy promulgated by the Federal Reserve to stimulate consumer spending. Memories should recall that it was the RE-FI cash-out phenomenon that not only created a "shop to you drop" mentality, it also gave birth to the sub-prime residential and credit bubble and Wall Street's Master of the Universe (MOTU) highly-leveraged and speculative bets. What most observers and participants failed to see early in the fall of 2002, was the rebound opportunity for all asset classes. This writer strongly encouraged investors to get fully invested in real estate, equities and commodities in the fall of 2002. Gains in equities and commodities of 200% to 400% from 2002 to 2006 were common. The key, of course, was an exit strategy to get the hell out of Omaha in 2007.
2010 - 2011
The rebound in the equity markets from March, 2009 has been rewarding to those who had capital and courage. Your writer re-committed to equities on April 1, 2009 — one year ago. The snap-back in gold from $700/oz in November,. 2008 to $1,220 one year later was as spectacular as it was rewarding for Contrarians. Real estate has not joined in the party because of the extent of physical and psychological damage brought on by the MOTU, well-documented by this writer in both of his books. So, what is CMV's outlook for the next two years?
1. Blue Chip Economic Indicators, a poll of 50 economists, all maintain that there will NOT be a second recession in 2010 and 2011. CMV agrees. The "crash" will come later.
2. The Blue Chip consensus expects the GDP to be a little less than 3% this year and a little over 3% in 2011. They also forecast unemployment to drop to 8.8%, by the end of 2011. CMV forecasts a higher GDP in the range of 4% to 5% for both years and unemployment to dip to 8% by the end of 2011.
3. The Blue Chip consensus expects consumer spending to remain in the 1.2% to 2% gains. CMV accurately forecast a robust fourth quarter of 2009 and sees the consumer much more confident going forward. The pundits say the consumer won't spend when unemployment remains high. CMV reminds the reader that unemployment remained above 10% from January through June of 1983, yet real consumer spending soared at an annual rate of 6.1%. CMV does not expect a repeat performance of 1983, but spending could surprise on the upside. Ford's sales and profits will be the industry's leader.
A few words on REAL ESTATE. Given the volume of e-mails and the anguish expressed by Realtors and developers, capitulation must be near. One Realtor remarked, "It will take several years for the market to recover," Employment opportunities are emerging in markets like Phoenix, which created 20,000 new jobs in February. Migration will soon follow. A new "enhanced" mortgage relief plan has just been announced (March 26,2010) which will require mortgage servicers to reduce principal if homeowners owe up to 15% more than the home is worth, to reduce payments to within 31% of the income and to skip payments altogether for the unemployed. Sophisticated investors are now willing to exchange zero returns on bonds for risk assets. Your writer's Realtor spouse and daughter have had more activity in the past month than in the past two years. Deals have been made, escrows opened and closed. There is a light at the end of the tunnel and it isn't a train! Market psychology can change rapidly. It's time to get back into the pool.
The China Syndrome
Do you remember the 1979 flick starring Michael Douglas, Jack Lemmon and the appropriately cast "Pink Lady" Jane Fonda? The film dealt with a cover-up of a potential meltdown of the Ventana Nuclear plant in California. Today, the potential for a currency meltdown between China and the US looms as ominous as a nuclear version.
At issue is China's past decision to peg its currency, the Yuan, to a fixed rate of 6.83 to the US dollar. The US claim (by the Keynesians) is that the resultant undervalued Yuan or currency manipulation combined with Chinese export subsidies has resulted in burgeoning trade deficits for the US, weakening our own manufacturing base and loss of millions of American jobs while China has prospered mightily. Recently, 130 members of Congress wrote a letter to the US Treasury demanding that unless China revalues the Yuan upward, the US should impose tariffs on Chinese goods. That's just what the US needs — a trade war with its number one banker. Duh!
To the Chinese, perception is more important than reality. If they bow to US demands, they appear weak, therefore China will delay the inevitable longer and when it best serves its interests And, what will be the result to the US when China revalues? US imports from China (which just about now covers everything) will appreciate in price thereby aggravating our inflation picture. On the plus side, our exports will be more competitive thereby expanding the US manufacturing base and reduce the trade deficit. Which do you prefer?
The bigger picture, of course, is that China has accumulated $2.5 trillion in US dollar reserves. They hold the ultimate trump card and already is re-shuffling the deck to recycle the shrinking dollar. What happens when China creates sufficient internal demand for its goods and doesn't need the US market? Our children could be speaking Mandarin. The most significant Mega-trend of our lifetime has been the shift in global power from Great Britain after World War II to the US and now from the US to China.
A Showdown At The OK (Gold) Corral
CMV and The Myth Buster have often reported on the market manipulation of gold and silver suppressing the price of both metals. A formal hearing was held at the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission on March 25, 2010. The charges presented to Gary Gensler, Chairman of the Commission were:
Comex data shows that the price of gold and silver are suppressed.
There is a direct correlation of price suppression and the positions of two US banks.
The Bank Derivatives Reports from Treasury Department Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) indicates these two banks are JP Morgan Chase and HSBC (formerly Hong Kong Shanghai Bank).
Appropriate enforcement action is required.
This writer's friend and hero, Bill Murphy, who founded The Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee (www.gata.org) many years ago, has implicated the US Government, the Federal Reserve and the major bullion banks as the perpetrators of the illegal scheme. Their motive, GATA says, is to maintain the purchasing power of the US dollar artificially high by concealing inflation and as a result, keep interest rates artificially low. Given the backdrop of the precarious state of the US and global economy, this issue has more relevance today than ever before. CMV suggests that you go to www.marketforceanalysis.com (Adrian Douglas) for a summary of the claims. To highlight the issue, from July to November, 2008, the two banks cited above went from having just 9% of the total net short position of silver to 99% thereby representing the entire net short position which is illegal. A short position is intended to suppress the price and the holder profits at a decline in price. As CMV indicated in previous issues, JP Morgan Chase, by virtue of its short position, would have been in serious financial condition if the price of silver increased. Of critical importance to you as an investor, JP Morgan Chase is the custodian of the silver in the SLV ETF. HSBC is the custodian in the GLD ETF. It's conceivable that neither of these institutions have the metal to meet their obligations as custodians.
President Barrack Obama (BO) in appointing Mr. Gensler to Chair the CFTC has vowed to clean up the corruption and bring transparency to these markets. Question is, will Gensler look into the abyss now confronted with these facts and clean up the mess or will he retreat and the bankers will maintain their control, as they have since 1913? CMV maintains that investors could demand delivery of bullion at contract expiration which will blow the lid off this entire scheme and both metals could reach levels never envisioned.
As a side note, despite the manipulation, gold has, since 2000, appreciated 10.1% a year against an average of All currencies. Some examples are:
US Dollar 14.9%
Swiss Franc 10.1%
UK Pound 15.1%
China Yuan 12.6%
Think back to 2000 and all of the financial advisers that told their clients that gold was "too risky" and a "barbarous relic." Pretty sound advice, huh?
One very important anomaly. The USD has rebounded in March from 81.00 to a high of 82.20 on the index which normally would be negative for gold. In spite of this dollar rally, gold has risen from $1,085/oz to $1,113/oz. We may have reached the point of BIFURCATION. Just like 1977 to 1980, gold will rise despite dollar strength and a dramatic increase in interest rates.
Interest Rates
CMV reported in the March issue of the "failed" auction of US Treasuries. 11% of the bonds at the February 10th auction were purchased by the Federal Reserve due to the lack of bids. A sudden drop in investor demand in the weak March 22nd auction further highlights the scenario forecast by The Myth Buster over a year ago. The 10 year note jumped from about 3.65% to 3.89% despite the fact that it was not offered in this auction. So, what is causing rates to rise?
Concern in Europe that Greece and other countries (PIIGS) may default on their debt.
The passage of Obamacare and the prospect of higher deficits in the US.
Social Security will record its first cash flow deficit (about $29 billion) in history this year, six years before forecasts.
US Treasuries have a higher yield than some US corporate bonds — a first in US history.
Echoing this concern, Steve Rodosky, head of Treasury and Derivative Trading at bond giant PIMCO said he was increasingly worried about the US fiscal outlook. In two days, 30 year mortgages were quoted at 5.125% up from 4.875%. Rates on many mortgages are linked to the 10 year Note. For CMV readers, TBT, our bond short strategy rose sharply from about $47/ sh to almost $50. Volume on the ETF skyrocketed from 5 million shares to over 15 million. The handwriting is on the wall. Read it! TBT should be a core holding. The Bond Bear Market has begun.
Additional fiscal concerns. Charles Krauthammer, who is a brilliant political analyst and who appears nightly on FOX News, said on Bill O'Reilly's Show on March 22nd, that the BO plan to raise hundreds of millions of dollars annually to attempt to meet the President's horrific deficits is a VAT — Value Added Tax — The European's answer to the constant dilemma that the US most assuredly faces. For those of you who haven't experienced it, you'll be forced to tack on a 10% to 25% (or more) tax on every retail purchase you make. (Possibly excluding food and health care.) Add $6,000 to that car you buy. When will this happen? Immediately after the mid-term election to be effective January 1, 2011. (Germany 19%, France and Italy 20%, Scandinavia 25%).
The biggest concern facing middle class America is the real prospect of the US Government's conversion of 401(K) and IRA and other retirement accounts. Sound absurd? In H L Quist's How To Profit From The Coming Inflationary Boom And Avoid The Next Crash, (p. 23) he cited nine months ago that the House Committee on Education and Labor had reviewed a proposal by Teresa Ghilarducci, a Professor of Economic Policy Analysis at the New School for Social Research in New York, to eliminate tax breaks for 401(K), IRAs and other retirement plans and convert them into Guaranteed Retirement Accounts (GRA) managed by the Social Security Administration. Now the focus has shifted to require that these plans purchase US Treasury Debt! These Marxists are totally committed to redistribute America's wealth and they can't resist this pool of trillions of dollars of private capital — particularly now when investors are backing off the purchase of US paper. If this attempt to "fundamentally change the United States of America" doesn't create a revolt, nothing will.
President BO, is doing his best to solve the unemployment problem. It is estimated that the IRS will hire 16,000 new employees to administer Obamacare and they've set aside $10 billion dollars in start-up funding. Unemployment in Virginia in counties close to DC have only 4% unemployment prior to the expansion of the IRS. The massive and highly remunerated bureaucracy that will grow during this presidency will absolutely destroy any chance of fiscal sanity.
What does this all translate to? Where are we, as a nation and it's economy, headed?
Rising inflation, morphing into;
Hyper-inflation, which leads to;
A Crack-Up Boom, which ends in;
US default and bankruptcy.
The only thing CMV can't tell you is, WHEN.
Subscribe to the CMV Newsletter and get real contrarian asset management assistance.
-- H. L. Quist
FREE PREVIEW of the April CMV Newsletter section. (The recommended list is available only to paid subscribers.) (The actual newsletter is better looking, due to the limitations of blog posts.)
We are repeating our offer of a free copy of "The Aftermath of Greed" and "How to Profit From The Coming Inflationary Boom" with a paid subscription to the Contrarian Market View e-Newsletter -- a $140 value for the price of $99. This offer is open to US residents (books shipped to a single address only) and will be available for a limited time only.
Here is the link to subscribe today http://bit.ly/CMVyearbook
.
April, 2010
H. L. Quist's
Contrarian Market View Newsletter
H. L. Quist's
Contrarian Market View Newsletter
Market Overview
The Economy:
Double Dip or Skinny Dip? In market terms, is the economy headed for a second recession or is a recovery at hand and is it time to jump back into the pool? (Swimsuit or not!) Contrary to a plethora of pundits who maintain that the US is on the precipice of financial collapse, CMV believes that the economy is going to surprise on the upside. We were courageous and correct when we re-committed to the equity market on April 1, 2009, and firmly believe that the economy will continue to outperform its' most vocal critics.
There's no question that portents of gloom and doom from Conservatives — particularly since the passage of Obamacare --- have obscured the positive. Be assured, CMV has not switched allegiance and moved to the left. Our position has always been consistent — when addressing the issue of money, you must separate political ideology from economic reality. A little history to make the case in point.
1975 - 1977
The oil embargo and Nixon's self-inflicted crisis and humiliation sent the economy and the markets into a free fall. The Dow fell 50% and the real estate market gave your writer the opportunity to buy a bankrupt premium residential property in Phoenix for $22/sq. Ft. Despite the election of a Trilateral Socialist as President who resurrected (again) John Maynard Keynes, we experienced a V correction within those two years. Look at the charts. The Dow rebounded 100% off its lows. And, by 1978 the real estate and commodity markets (Gold to $850/oz) were going ballistic despite rapidly rising interest rates. The prime rate rose to 21.5% and mortgage rates to 17% by 1980. Of course, the inflationary ‘crack-up boom' followed in 1980, but those investors and pundits who focused on the political and fiscal ineptitude of Jimmy Carter, missed the boat to Omaha. (Buffet discovered value investing in Omaha during this time period.)
1983 - 1985
The Recession of 1980-82 initially was a nightmare for Ronald Reagan. Official unemployment of 10.4% was higher then than the peak experienced in 2009. Despite Paul Volker's determination to kill the inflation dragon with high interest rates, the GDP jumped to 5.1% in the first quarter of 1983, 9.3% in the second quarter and remained at an incredible 8% for the next three quarters. The Garn- St. Germain Act, Supply Side Economics, Michael Milkin and The Plaza Accord were the stimulants which led to Black Monday in 1987, and the real estate collapse of 1989. The recovery in 1983 to 1985 was indeed robust and we suspect that those liberals hoping for Reagonomics to fail also missed the boat to Omaha.
1991 - 1993
The collapse of the real estate market — primarily commercial — the enactment of FIRREA (Financial Institution Reform and Recovery Enforcement Act) which formed the Resolution Trust Corp and closed 747 banks and thrifts in the US, created a similar mind-set amongst the real estate industry that exists today. Your writer forecast a real estate boom in 1992, which proved to be the longest and most profitable period in real property value growth in US history. It also marked the beginning of the .com bubble. Another robust recovery for those that had vision and courage and took a Contrarian view in 1991. (Isn't that what this is all about?)
2002 - 2005
The bursting of the .com bubble beginning March, 2000 followed by 9-11 brought a new level of negative psyche to all markets. "The Greenspan Plan," so named by this writer, was a deliberate strategy promulgated by the Federal Reserve to stimulate consumer spending. Memories should recall that it was the RE-FI cash-out phenomenon that not only created a "shop to you drop" mentality, it also gave birth to the sub-prime residential and credit bubble and Wall Street's Master of the Universe (MOTU) highly-leveraged and speculative bets. What most observers and participants failed to see early in the fall of 2002, was the rebound opportunity for all asset classes. This writer strongly encouraged investors to get fully invested in real estate, equities and commodities in the fall of 2002. Gains in equities and commodities of 200% to 400% from 2002 to 2006 were common. The key, of course, was an exit strategy to get the hell out of Omaha in 2007.
2010 - 2011
The rebound in the equity markets from March, 2009 has been rewarding to those who had capital and courage. Your writer re-committed to equities on April 1, 2009 — one year ago. The snap-back in gold from $700/oz in November,. 2008 to $1,220 one year later was as spectacular as it was rewarding for Contrarians. Real estate has not joined in the party because of the extent of physical and psychological damage brought on by the MOTU, well-documented by this writer in both of his books. So, what is CMV's outlook for the next two years?
1. Blue Chip Economic Indicators, a poll of 50 economists, all maintain that there will NOT be a second recession in 2010 and 2011. CMV agrees. The "crash" will come later.
2. The Blue Chip consensus expects the GDP to be a little less than 3% this year and a little over 3% in 2011. They also forecast unemployment to drop to 8.8%, by the end of 2011. CMV forecasts a higher GDP in the range of 4% to 5% for both years and unemployment to dip to 8% by the end of 2011.
3. The Blue Chip consensus expects consumer spending to remain in the 1.2% to 2% gains. CMV accurately forecast a robust fourth quarter of 2009 and sees the consumer much more confident going forward. The pundits say the consumer won't spend when unemployment remains high. CMV reminds the reader that unemployment remained above 10% from January through June of 1983, yet real consumer spending soared at an annual rate of 6.1%. CMV does not expect a repeat performance of 1983, but spending could surprise on the upside. Ford's sales and profits will be the industry's leader.
A few words on REAL ESTATE. Given the volume of e-mails and the anguish expressed by Realtors and developers, capitulation must be near. One Realtor remarked, "It will take several years for the market to recover," Employment opportunities are emerging in markets like Phoenix, which created 20,000 new jobs in February. Migration will soon follow. A new "enhanced" mortgage relief plan has just been announced (March 26,2010) which will require mortgage servicers to reduce principal if homeowners owe up to 15% more than the home is worth, to reduce payments to within 31% of the income and to skip payments altogether for the unemployed. Sophisticated investors are now willing to exchange zero returns on bonds for risk assets. Your writer's Realtor spouse and daughter have had more activity in the past month than in the past two years. Deals have been made, escrows opened and closed. There is a light at the end of the tunnel and it isn't a train! Market psychology can change rapidly. It's time to get back into the pool.
The China Syndrome
Do you remember the 1979 flick starring Michael Douglas, Jack Lemmon and the appropriately cast "Pink Lady" Jane Fonda? The film dealt with a cover-up of a potential meltdown of the Ventana Nuclear plant in California. Today, the potential for a currency meltdown between China and the US looms as ominous as a nuclear version.
At issue is China's past decision to peg its currency, the Yuan, to a fixed rate of 6.83 to the US dollar. The US claim (by the Keynesians) is that the resultant undervalued Yuan or currency manipulation combined with Chinese export subsidies has resulted in burgeoning trade deficits for the US, weakening our own manufacturing base and loss of millions of American jobs while China has prospered mightily. Recently, 130 members of Congress wrote a letter to the US Treasury demanding that unless China revalues the Yuan upward, the US should impose tariffs on Chinese goods. That's just what the US needs — a trade war with its number one banker. Duh!
To the Chinese, perception is more important than reality. If they bow to US demands, they appear weak, therefore China will delay the inevitable longer and when it best serves its interests And, what will be the result to the US when China revalues? US imports from China (which just about now covers everything) will appreciate in price thereby aggravating our inflation picture. On the plus side, our exports will be more competitive thereby expanding the US manufacturing base and reduce the trade deficit. Which do you prefer?
The bigger picture, of course, is that China has accumulated $2.5 trillion in US dollar reserves. They hold the ultimate trump card and already is re-shuffling the deck to recycle the shrinking dollar. What happens when China creates sufficient internal demand for its goods and doesn't need the US market? Our children could be speaking Mandarin. The most significant Mega-trend of our lifetime has been the shift in global power from Great Britain after World War II to the US and now from the US to China.
A Showdown At The OK (Gold) Corral
CMV and The Myth Buster have often reported on the market manipulation of gold and silver suppressing the price of both metals. A formal hearing was held at the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission on March 25, 2010. The charges presented to Gary Gensler, Chairman of the Commission were:
Comex data shows that the price of gold and silver are suppressed.
There is a direct correlation of price suppression and the positions of two US banks.
The Bank Derivatives Reports from Treasury Department Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) indicates these two banks are JP Morgan Chase and HSBC (formerly Hong Kong Shanghai Bank).
Appropriate enforcement action is required.
This writer's friend and hero, Bill Murphy, who founded The Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee (www.gata.org) many years ago, has implicated the US Government, the Federal Reserve and the major bullion banks as the perpetrators of the illegal scheme. Their motive, GATA says, is to maintain the purchasing power of the US dollar artificially high by concealing inflation and as a result, keep interest rates artificially low. Given the backdrop of the precarious state of the US and global economy, this issue has more relevance today than ever before. CMV suggests that you go to www.marketforceanalysis.com (Adrian Douglas) for a summary of the claims. To highlight the issue, from July to November, 2008, the two banks cited above went from having just 9% of the total net short position of silver to 99% thereby representing the entire net short position which is illegal. A short position is intended to suppress the price and the holder profits at a decline in price. As CMV indicated in previous issues, JP Morgan Chase, by virtue of its short position, would have been in serious financial condition if the price of silver increased. Of critical importance to you as an investor, JP Morgan Chase is the custodian of the silver in the SLV ETF. HSBC is the custodian in the GLD ETF. It's conceivable that neither of these institutions have the metal to meet their obligations as custodians.
President Barrack Obama (BO) in appointing Mr. Gensler to Chair the CFTC has vowed to clean up the corruption and bring transparency to these markets. Question is, will Gensler look into the abyss now confronted with these facts and clean up the mess or will he retreat and the bankers will maintain their control, as they have since 1913? CMV maintains that investors could demand delivery of bullion at contract expiration which will blow the lid off this entire scheme and both metals could reach levels never envisioned.
As a side note, despite the manipulation, gold has, since 2000, appreciated 10.1% a year against an average of All currencies. Some examples are:
US Dollar 14.9%
Swiss Franc 10.1%
UK Pound 15.1%
China Yuan 12.6%
Think back to 2000 and all of the financial advisers that told their clients that gold was "too risky" and a "barbarous relic." Pretty sound advice, huh?
One very important anomaly. The USD has rebounded in March from 81.00 to a high of 82.20 on the index which normally would be negative for gold. In spite of this dollar rally, gold has risen from $1,085/oz to $1,113/oz. We may have reached the point of BIFURCATION. Just like 1977 to 1980, gold will rise despite dollar strength and a dramatic increase in interest rates.
Interest Rates
CMV reported in the March issue of the "failed" auction of US Treasuries. 11% of the bonds at the February 10th auction were purchased by the Federal Reserve due to the lack of bids. A sudden drop in investor demand in the weak March 22nd auction further highlights the scenario forecast by The Myth Buster over a year ago. The 10 year note jumped from about 3.65% to 3.89% despite the fact that it was not offered in this auction. So, what is causing rates to rise?
Concern in Europe that Greece and other countries (PIIGS) may default on their debt.
The passage of Obamacare and the prospect of higher deficits in the US.
Social Security will record its first cash flow deficit (about $29 billion) in history this year, six years before forecasts.
US Treasuries have a higher yield than some US corporate bonds — a first in US history.
Echoing this concern, Steve Rodosky, head of Treasury and Derivative Trading at bond giant PIMCO said he was increasingly worried about the US fiscal outlook. In two days, 30 year mortgages were quoted at 5.125% up from 4.875%. Rates on many mortgages are linked to the 10 year Note. For CMV readers, TBT, our bond short strategy rose sharply from about $47/ sh to almost $50. Volume on the ETF skyrocketed from 5 million shares to over 15 million. The handwriting is on the wall. Read it! TBT should be a core holding. The Bond Bear Market has begun.
Additional fiscal concerns. Charles Krauthammer, who is a brilliant political analyst and who appears nightly on FOX News, said on Bill O'Reilly's Show on March 22nd, that the BO plan to raise hundreds of millions of dollars annually to attempt to meet the President's horrific deficits is a VAT — Value Added Tax — The European's answer to the constant dilemma that the US most assuredly faces. For those of you who haven't experienced it, you'll be forced to tack on a 10% to 25% (or more) tax on every retail purchase you make. (Possibly excluding food and health care.) Add $6,000 to that car you buy. When will this happen? Immediately after the mid-term election to be effective January 1, 2011. (Germany 19%, France and Italy 20%, Scandinavia 25%).
The biggest concern facing middle class America is the real prospect of the US Government's conversion of 401(K) and IRA and other retirement accounts. Sound absurd? In H L Quist's How To Profit From The Coming Inflationary Boom And Avoid The Next Crash, (p. 23) he cited nine months ago that the House Committee on Education and Labor had reviewed a proposal by Teresa Ghilarducci, a Professor of Economic Policy Analysis at the New School for Social Research in New York, to eliminate tax breaks for 401(K), IRAs and other retirement plans and convert them into Guaranteed Retirement Accounts (GRA) managed by the Social Security Administration. Now the focus has shifted to require that these plans purchase US Treasury Debt! These Marxists are totally committed to redistribute America's wealth and they can't resist this pool of trillions of dollars of private capital — particularly now when investors are backing off the purchase of US paper. If this attempt to "fundamentally change the United States of America" doesn't create a revolt, nothing will.
President BO, is doing his best to solve the unemployment problem. It is estimated that the IRS will hire 16,000 new employees to administer Obamacare and they've set aside $10 billion dollars in start-up funding. Unemployment in Virginia in counties close to DC have only 4% unemployment prior to the expansion of the IRS. The massive and highly remunerated bureaucracy that will grow during this presidency will absolutely destroy any chance of fiscal sanity.
What does this all translate to? Where are we, as a nation and it's economy, headed?
Rising inflation, morphing into;
Hyper-inflation, which leads to;
A Crack-Up Boom, which ends in;
US default and bankruptcy.
The only thing CMV can't tell you is, WHEN.
Subscribe to the CMV Newsletter and get real contrarian asset management assistance.
-- H. L. Quist
Monday, March 15, 2010
What Does America Have In Common With Argentina?
Hello World,
Answer: They will both be destroyed by Progressives! (Take 2 minutes to see the future)
At the link below is a power point file (argentina.pps) which makes a powerful statement. Copy and paste this link in your browser to locate and download the file:
http://www.resistnet.com/forum/topics/a-must-see-is-america
For current asset management guidance, subscribe to my Contrarian Market View Newsletter. $99/year. Subscribe today and receive How to Profit and The Aftermath of Greed free with the paid subscription -- both books to be shipped together to USA residents only. Click here to subscribe today. -- be sure to include your address.
-- H. L.Quist
Answer: They will both be destroyed by Progressives! (Take 2 minutes to see the future)
At the link below is a power point file (argentina.pps) which makes a powerful statement. Copy and paste this link in your browser to locate and download the file:
http://www.resistnet.com/forum/topics/a-must-see-is-america
For current asset management guidance, subscribe to my Contrarian Market View Newsletter. $99/year. Subscribe today and receive How to Profit and The Aftermath of Greed free with the paid subscription -- both books to be shipped together to USA residents only. Click here to subscribe today. -- be sure to include your address.
-- H. L.Quist
Wednesday, March 3, 2010
Free Preview of March CMV Newsletter
Hello Investor,
We are repeating our offer of a free copy of "The Aftermath of Greed" and "How to Profit From The Coming Inflationary Boom" with a paid subscription to the Contrarian Market View e-Newsletter -- a $140 value for the price of $99. This offer is open to US residents (books shipped to a single address only) and will be available for a limited time only.
Here is the link to subscribe today http://bit.ly/CMVyearbook
Be sure to provide your screen name and mailing address.
FREE PREVIEW of the February CMV Newsletter section. (The recommended list is available only to paid subscribers.)
(The actual newsletter is better looking, due to the limitations of blog posts.)
A CONTRARIAN is someone who looks at things differently than the majority of people. That definition fits H. L. Quist and CMV perfectly. In market parlance when 80 to 90% of investors are certain that the market is going to continue upward, the contrarian heads the other direction. Conversely, when the news is about as bad as it can get, the true contrarian is usually on the ground floor buying. That's what you can expect from H. L. Quist's Contrarian Market View (CMV).
CMV is not a market timer, but we don't want to be 100% exposed at a major turn in the market. In the past ten years there were two occasions to be defensive, significantly change the asset allocation, or be out of the market altogether.
The results, in the above case, were significant as most participants are painfully aware (Pages 68 - 75 How to Profit From The Coming Inflationary Boom and Avoid the Next Crash, by H. L. Quist). CMV anticipates that market volatility will continue in the future and our form of Active Management will serve the investor well.
In most cases, CMV anticipates that most readers will manage their own assets. In addition, most readers/investors will use CMV's specific recommendations to compliment their existing portfolios according to their own risk tolerance, time horizon and suitability. The recommendations included in this newsletter are principally aggressive and speculative in nature and should be used to offset or compliment the investor's complete portfolio. When determining what percentages should be in various asset classes, the reader/investor should list ALL of their assets such as cash in all accounts, life insurance and annuities, IRAs, 401Ks, commodity accounts, investment real estate, etc. The principal point of this exercise is that most advisors totally ignored alternative investments such as gold, oil, commodities etc. in past allocation of assets and not only failed to realize the gains these assets provided in the past 10 years, but they didn't have these gains to offset the losses in the .com bubble bust and the sub-prime market meltdown. Going forward Buy and Hold is not a prudent investment strategy.
Here is an example:
Risk Tolerance % Allocated to CMV
Conservative 10%
Moderate 15%
Aggressive 30%
Speculative 50%
The above is simply an example of how the reader/investor may want to use this newsletter and the
recommended portfolio. Please consult with your adviser and conduct additional research on your
own.
Inflation
This topic is a major focus of CMV for two primary reasons:
1. It could be the single most important factor to you in your investment, financial, retirement, business and personal planning going forward, and
2. Americans are inundated with manipulated information that demonstrates that the threat of inflation does not exist.
The following information is provided by Jeff Nielson writing for Bullion Bulls Canada in the February 20, 2010 edition entitled, "Bank Lending Plummets as Wall Street Strangles Economy." Nielson quotes extensively from John Williams' Shadow Government Statistics (shadowstats.com) whom CMV has also relied upon for factual (truthful) data on the US economy.
Nielson says, "John Williams now believes that US hyperinflation could kick-in as early as this year." Nielson adds, "However, with phoney inflation statistics pretending that there is no inflation in the US, many are asking ‘where is this inflation?' Confusing the issue further, a stubborn group of ideologues insist that there can't be inflation — because we are headed for a deflationary implosion."
To illustrate the point, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BOLS) indicated in mid-February that the Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 1.4% in January, or over 20% on an annualized basis. The PPI reflects the cost of finished goods which ultimately, of course, are passed on to consumers. In contrast, the PPI was a negative number in 2009. But BOLS is quick to add, if oil and food increases (which none of us consume !) are removed from the index, the gain is only .04% and therefore not a harbinger of inflation.
Similarly, the January Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed an increase of 2.6% over December, 2009 and, annualized, over 30%! However, when "seasonally adjusted" the increase was reduced to only 0.2%. Jay Bryson, an economist at Wells Fargo was quoted as saying in a Wall St. Journal article that there were substantial declines in rent, education and healthcare. Arizona universities (as some of the rest of the nation) just announced up to a 30% increase in tuition and the largest provider for health insurance in California, Anthem Blue Cross, just reported a 39% increase in some premiums effective May 1st. CMV suspects that none of these numbers will ever see the light of day at BOLS. John Williams reports that inflation was 9.8% in January. Who do you believe?
So, why would BOLS under-report or adjust the numbers to minimize inflation?
1. To convince the consumer that prices of goods and services are not increasing and therefore stockpiling or hoarding isn't necessary.
2. To minimize the cost of US Treasury borrowing. The Treasury currently pays approximately $360 billion interest on $10 trillion of debt at exceptionally low rates. The government will need an additional $2-3 trillion in new financing in 2010 alone. Interest on the Federal Debt will be the largest line item soon in the country's budget.
3. To minimize the bank's interest costs from borrowing from the Federal Reserve as well as the costs to large corporations, hedge funds and private equity firms.
Most consumers and some observers fail to recognize that inflation is first and foremost a monetary phenomenon. It's simple arithmetic. When the government increases the supply of money at the fastest rate in history the price of that commodity (money) must fall. The devaluation of the USD is in reality, the definition of inflation. Those in control of the inflation numbers and those who benefit most from lower interest costs are deliberately masking what is about to unfold. John Williams believes that the "Inflation Jeannie's" appearance will be sudden and soon. CMV believes that the process will be more gradual allowing investors to realize gains from asset inflation before the ‘crack-up boom."
Bank Lending
Closely related to the above analysis is the commodity or fiduciary element that creates this phenomenon — MONEY. The purpose of the TARP program was to save the banking system from collapse. Ostensibly, that mission has been accomplished (at the money center banks) and those institutions should now be in position to lend again as a requisite for recovery. That has not happened. Look at the chart below indicating the largest drop in commercial and industrial loans in history.
Source:
http://www.businessinsider.com/chart-of-the-day-commercial-and-industrial-loans-at-all-commer cial-banks-2010-2
Early 1990s
Note the drop in loans after the real estate crash in 1990.
2000 to 2002
Note the drop in lending after the .com bubble burst and 9-11.
2002 to 2007
Note the dramatic increase in lending leading up to the sub-prime fiasco.
2007 to Present
Note the incredible drop from +$300 billion in lending in 2007 to a minus $300 billion currently.
So, where is the money going? Jeff Nielson calls it the "scorched-earth" strategy. Here, he says, is what is happening:
1. The Federal Reserve monetizes (prints) massive amounts of new money.
2. The Fed loans the money to the money center and regional banks (he calls them OLIGARCHS) at a nominal cost.
3. Instead of lending out these funds, the banks deposit the funds at the Federal Reserve where they earn 1% interest (ostensibly at no risk).
4. The Fed then uses these deposits to buy U S Treasury bonds which funds the massive US budget deficits, keeps interest rates low and the bond bubble from bursting. These purchases are from "direct sources" which are not named but we can now conclude The Fed is the primary buyer.
An event occurred on February 10th, that went unnoticed by perhaps 99% of the population. The US Treasury had, what many considered, a "failed" auction. Every week the Treasury auctions off gazillions dollars of debt to the highest bidder. Normally the bid to cover ratio is 2/3 to 1 for every bond sold, or in other words oversubscribed. More bidders than supply means lower interest rates. In this particular auction however, 24% of the bond issue was bought by direct buyers who are not identified. Shazam! Up steps Mr. Bernanke and the Fed becomes the secret "direct buyer" for an estimated 11% of the total purchases - a record.
Tim Geithner, the Secretary of the US Treasury when asked about this "failed" auction and the problems in Greece, was quick to respond. "The US will never lose its' AAA bond rating." To observers like CMV this is government doublespeak, meaning a downgrade of US debt is probably imminent. What then? US bond yields balloon, the USD falls and the Inflation Jeannie exits her bottle to party.
So, what have these "banksters" accomplished in this charade? One, they've "kicked the can" down the road. They are avoiding an immediate debt default by the US Treasury, providing a good portion of the various stimulus programs, feeding FHA, Fannie Mae, and Freddie Mac to shore up the housing market and in short — delay the inevitable collapse.
Secondly, and most important for readers of the CMV, the "scorched-earth" strategy will create an inflationary boom or as Nielson says "The Mother of all Rallies." In a last-gasp desperation move the banks, given an additional injection of money from the Fed, will begin a frenzy of lending abandoning (again) all lending standards creating Hyper-Inflation described by Ludwig von Mises, as a "crack-up boom."
Herein describes the problem and the opportunity. This scenario to CMV is clear. The timing is not. But, in all probability CMV will be able to gauge the process and keep you advised. You should not miss the opportunity to achieve gains in your portfolio during the "Mother of all Rallies," but before it's over CMV will probably advise liquidation of all assets. (And, where to shelter them.)
The Stock Market
The Bears have come out of hibernation and it's not spring yet! The "fear factor" (that there will be a major decline in the market) is as high as it was in November, 2008, according to Shaeffer Investments. A poll of newsletter writers (not including CMV) shows that only 34.1% are Bullish which is the lowest since March, 2009, when the Bear market rally began. You may recall that CMV postulated in the January CMV newsletter that there could be a correction of 10% to 20%. Through February the correction is less than 1.0% Here is a quick insight into some of the Bearish soothsayers:
-- Meredith Whitney, who was one of the first analysts to call the sub-prime crash was Bullish until the end of 2009. In an interview with Maria Bartiromo recently on CNBC, she turned Bearish. Reason? The banks are under-capitalized.
-- Doug Fabian is a big Bear booster. He says this market rally is a "Bear Trap" much like the 1930 rally of 48%
-- Paul Farrell of Market Watch has listed 20 reasons why the market will fail in 2012. (CMV believes that there could be a significant rally in the ensuing two years also ending around that time.)
-- Bloomberg is forecasting a "great reckoning" in the US economy, meaning deflation.
-- Forbes believes that, in a short period of time, the total Federal Debt will equal 90% of GDP and the US economy will arrive at the "tipping point."
And, the Bearish beat goes on.
Late 2009 when the soothsayers were 90% Bearish on the US dollar and calling for its' demise, CMV (through its alter-ego The Myth Buster) took the Contrarian View and forecast a Rally in the dollar. Sure enough, much to the surprise and chagrin of the Bears, too many of them crowded together on to the same side of the ship and it capsized. What does this have to do with the stock market? When the Bears become the majority here, it will be time for the stock market to continue its rally that began in March, 2009. It appears that we're close to that point.
What's Bullish to CMV? Look at recent reported earnings:
-- Sears reported quarterly earnings of $430 million, up double from last year.
-- Target reported quarterly earnings of $936 million, up 54% over the same period last year.
-- Priceline earnings doubled and expect bookings to rise 48% in 2010.
-- Whole Foods earnings jumped 71% over last year.
What do these companies have in common? They all represent consumer spending and specifically to lower demographic groups.
It has been reported that over 80% of the S&P 500 companies have earnings in excess of estimates. Namely:
-- John Deere - earnings up 19% in the first quarter of FY 2010, and they're re-hiring workers.
-- Caterpillar also reported robust earnings and they're re-hiring 600 employees in the next 60 days.
-- Edmonds Shoe Corp. is also calling back laid off employees.
-- H-P reported a 25% increase in earnings and forecast an increase in sales of 26% in 2010.
What we have here, in CMV's opinion, is a massive disconnect between the Bullish indicators of business (specifically large corporations) and the consumer versus the Bearish outlook of the banking and government sectors. The question we all want answered is, will the economy continue to improve (as evidenced above) DESPITE the burgeoning Federal Debt and the incompetency and divisiveness in our political system? Most Bears see the out of control Federal Debt and deficits as the Sword of Damocles that will come crashing down to cut off the lifeblood to our Capitalistic system. Will Keynesianism succeed? Stay tuned and informed.
Leadership?
In February, the President signed an executive order creating a Bi-Partisan National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform. How absurd is that ... when the President's own budget proposal estimates that deficits will total $8.5 trillion over the next 10 years? According to the Wall St. Journal (WSJ) what the President is really trying to accomplish is "political cover" for huge tax increases scheduled for after the mid-term elections. The WSJ says this charade should be called the VAT (Value Added Tax) Commission because that will probably be the recommendation.
Representative Scott Garrett, (R, NJ) has introduced a bill titled the Accurate Accounting of Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac Act which would require an accurate accounting to taxpayers as to the total liability of these two mortgage giants now under control of the US Treasury. The massive losses that the "evil twins" plus the $1.6 trillion of their corporate debt are presently not included as taxpayer debt and, are in Washington terms, ‘off-balance-sheet' items. As CMV has reported on several occasions, losses will continue to mount, FNM and FRE executives will continue to receive outlandish bonuses and taxpayers will never know the true liabilities. In the end, our political leaders will bury the loss along with the twins. That's real "leadership."
In CMV's opinion, there is no other corporate market leader that was contributed more to the real estate debacle and the resultant financial collapse of the US economy than Goldman Sucks. Now we've learned that Goldman played a significant role in Greece's potential default on its sovereign debt! These Masters of the Universe (for humongous fees and commissions) advised the Greeks how to hide their ballooning debt off-balance-sheet — for a number of years until two weeks ago. Now the Grecians are rioting and storming the stock exchange and government offices to rally against budge cuts. Shouldn't they direct some of their ire to the true architects of this global chaos? (As CMV goes to press the Federal Reserve is opening an investigation into Goldman's involvement in Greece. Rots of ruck!)
For those of you who remain partisan, it's the call for change in all Leadership that is the mantra of the Tea Parties. These are former Democrats, Republicans and Independents that have got it figured out. And, this is the critical point: Inflation and its' big brother hyper-inflation are a direct result of loss of confidence in leadership and the value of the country's currency. This massive mountain of debt coupled with the change in public sentiment are the roots of the ‘flations.
. . .
The above is a partial preview of the March CMV Newsletter. To get all the information including the recommended portfolio, AND receive a copy of "Greed" and "Profit" subscribe today - click here.
-- H. L. Quist
We are repeating our offer of a free copy of "The Aftermath of Greed" and "How to Profit From The Coming Inflationary Boom" with a paid subscription to the Contrarian Market View e-Newsletter -- a $140 value for the price of $99. This offer is open to US residents (books shipped to a single address only) and will be available for a limited time only.
Here is the link to subscribe today http://bit.ly/CMVyearbook
Be sure to provide your screen name and mailing address.
FREE PREVIEW of the February CMV Newsletter section. (The recommended list is available only to paid subscribers.)
(The actual newsletter is better looking, due to the limitations of blog posts.)
March, 2010
H. L. Quist's
Contrarian Market View Newsletter
H. L. Quist's
Contrarian Market View Newsletter
Introduction
A CONTRARIAN is someone who looks at things differently than the majority of people. That definition fits H. L. Quist and CMV perfectly. In market parlance when 80 to 90% of investors are certain that the market is going to continue upward, the contrarian heads the other direction. Conversely, when the news is about as bad as it can get, the true contrarian is usually on the ground floor buying. That's what you can expect from H. L. Quist's Contrarian Market View (CMV).
CMV is not a market timer, but we don't want to be 100% exposed at a major turn in the market. In the past ten years there were two occasions to be defensive, significantly change the asset allocation, or be out of the market altogether.
March 2000 to October 2002
July 2007 to April 2009
July 2007 to April 2009
The results, in the above case, were significant as most participants are painfully aware (Pages 68 - 75 How to Profit From The Coming Inflationary Boom and Avoid the Next Crash, by H. L. Quist). CMV anticipates that market volatility will continue in the future and our form of Active Management will serve the investor well.
In most cases, CMV anticipates that most readers will manage their own assets. In addition, most readers/investors will use CMV's specific recommendations to compliment their existing portfolios according to their own risk tolerance, time horizon and suitability. The recommendations included in this newsletter are principally aggressive and speculative in nature and should be used to offset or compliment the investor's complete portfolio. When determining what percentages should be in various asset classes, the reader/investor should list ALL of their assets such as cash in all accounts, life insurance and annuities, IRAs, 401Ks, commodity accounts, investment real estate, etc. The principal point of this exercise is that most advisors totally ignored alternative investments such as gold, oil, commodities etc. in past allocation of assets and not only failed to realize the gains these assets provided in the past 10 years, but they didn't have these gains to offset the losses in the .com bubble bust and the sub-prime market meltdown. Going forward Buy and Hold is not a prudent investment strategy.
Here is an example:
Risk Tolerance % Allocated to CMV
Conservative 10%
Moderate 15%
Aggressive 30%
Speculative 50%
The above is simply an example of how the reader/investor may want to use this newsletter and the
recommended portfolio. Please consult with your adviser and conduct additional research on your
own.
Market Overview
Inflation
This topic is a major focus of CMV for two primary reasons:
1. It could be the single most important factor to you in your investment, financial, retirement, business and personal planning going forward, and
2. Americans are inundated with manipulated information that demonstrates that the threat of inflation does not exist.
The following information is provided by Jeff Nielson writing for Bullion Bulls Canada in the February 20, 2010 edition entitled, "Bank Lending Plummets as Wall Street Strangles Economy." Nielson quotes extensively from John Williams' Shadow Government Statistics (shadowstats.com) whom CMV has also relied upon for factual (truthful) data on the US economy.
Nielson says, "John Williams now believes that US hyperinflation could kick-in as early as this year." Nielson adds, "However, with phoney inflation statistics pretending that there is no inflation in the US, many are asking ‘where is this inflation?' Confusing the issue further, a stubborn group of ideologues insist that there can't be inflation — because we are headed for a deflationary implosion."
To illustrate the point, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BOLS) indicated in mid-February that the Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 1.4% in January, or over 20% on an annualized basis. The PPI reflects the cost of finished goods which ultimately, of course, are passed on to consumers. In contrast, the PPI was a negative number in 2009. But BOLS is quick to add, if oil and food increases (which none of us consume !) are removed from the index, the gain is only .04% and therefore not a harbinger of inflation.
Similarly, the January Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed an increase of 2.6% over December, 2009 and, annualized, over 30%! However, when "seasonally adjusted" the increase was reduced to only 0.2%. Jay Bryson, an economist at Wells Fargo was quoted as saying in a Wall St. Journal article that there were substantial declines in rent, education and healthcare. Arizona universities (as some of the rest of the nation) just announced up to a 30% increase in tuition and the largest provider for health insurance in California, Anthem Blue Cross, just reported a 39% increase in some premiums effective May 1st. CMV suspects that none of these numbers will ever see the light of day at BOLS. John Williams reports that inflation was 9.8% in January. Who do you believe?
So, why would BOLS under-report or adjust the numbers to minimize inflation?
1. To convince the consumer that prices of goods and services are not increasing and therefore stockpiling or hoarding isn't necessary.
2. To minimize the cost of US Treasury borrowing. The Treasury currently pays approximately $360 billion interest on $10 trillion of debt at exceptionally low rates. The government will need an additional $2-3 trillion in new financing in 2010 alone. Interest on the Federal Debt will be the largest line item soon in the country's budget.
3. To minimize the bank's interest costs from borrowing from the Federal Reserve as well as the costs to large corporations, hedge funds and private equity firms.
Most consumers and some observers fail to recognize that inflation is first and foremost a monetary phenomenon. It's simple arithmetic. When the government increases the supply of money at the fastest rate in history the price of that commodity (money) must fall. The devaluation of the USD is in reality, the definition of inflation. Those in control of the inflation numbers and those who benefit most from lower interest costs are deliberately masking what is about to unfold. John Williams believes that the "Inflation Jeannie's" appearance will be sudden and soon. CMV believes that the process will be more gradual allowing investors to realize gains from asset inflation before the ‘crack-up boom."
Bank Lending
Closely related to the above analysis is the commodity or fiduciary element that creates this phenomenon — MONEY. The purpose of the TARP program was to save the banking system from collapse. Ostensibly, that mission has been accomplished (at the money center banks) and those institutions should now be in position to lend again as a requisite for recovery. That has not happened. Look at the chart below indicating the largest drop in commercial and industrial loans in history.
Source:
http://www.businessinsider.com/chart-of-the-day-commercial-and-industrial-loans-at-all-commer cial-banks-2010-2
Early 1990s
Note the drop in loans after the real estate crash in 1990.
2000 to 2002
Note the drop in lending after the .com bubble burst and 9-11.
2002 to 2007
Note the dramatic increase in lending leading up to the sub-prime fiasco.
2007 to Present
Note the incredible drop from +$300 billion in lending in 2007 to a minus $300 billion currently.
So, where is the money going? Jeff Nielson calls it the "scorched-earth" strategy. Here, he says, is what is happening:
1. The Federal Reserve monetizes (prints) massive amounts of new money.
2. The Fed loans the money to the money center and regional banks (he calls them OLIGARCHS) at a nominal cost.
3. Instead of lending out these funds, the banks deposit the funds at the Federal Reserve where they earn 1% interest (ostensibly at no risk).
4. The Fed then uses these deposits to buy U S Treasury bonds which funds the massive US budget deficits, keeps interest rates low and the bond bubble from bursting. These purchases are from "direct sources" which are not named but we can now conclude The Fed is the primary buyer.
An event occurred on February 10th, that went unnoticed by perhaps 99% of the population. The US Treasury had, what many considered, a "failed" auction. Every week the Treasury auctions off gazillions dollars of debt to the highest bidder. Normally the bid to cover ratio is 2/3 to 1 for every bond sold, or in other words oversubscribed. More bidders than supply means lower interest rates. In this particular auction however, 24% of the bond issue was bought by direct buyers who are not identified. Shazam! Up steps Mr. Bernanke and the Fed becomes the secret "direct buyer" for an estimated 11% of the total purchases - a record.
Tim Geithner, the Secretary of the US Treasury when asked about this "failed" auction and the problems in Greece, was quick to respond. "The US will never lose its' AAA bond rating." To observers like CMV this is government doublespeak, meaning a downgrade of US debt is probably imminent. What then? US bond yields balloon, the USD falls and the Inflation Jeannie exits her bottle to party.
So, what have these "banksters" accomplished in this charade? One, they've "kicked the can" down the road. They are avoiding an immediate debt default by the US Treasury, providing a good portion of the various stimulus programs, feeding FHA, Fannie Mae, and Freddie Mac to shore up the housing market and in short — delay the inevitable collapse.
Secondly, and most important for readers of the CMV, the "scorched-earth" strategy will create an inflationary boom or as Nielson says "The Mother of all Rallies." In a last-gasp desperation move the banks, given an additional injection of money from the Fed, will begin a frenzy of lending abandoning (again) all lending standards creating Hyper-Inflation described by Ludwig von Mises, as a "crack-up boom."
Herein describes the problem and the opportunity. This scenario to CMV is clear. The timing is not. But, in all probability CMV will be able to gauge the process and keep you advised. You should not miss the opportunity to achieve gains in your portfolio during the "Mother of all Rallies," but before it's over CMV will probably advise liquidation of all assets. (And, where to shelter them.)
The Stock Market
The Bears have come out of hibernation and it's not spring yet! The "fear factor" (that there will be a major decline in the market) is as high as it was in November, 2008, according to Shaeffer Investments. A poll of newsletter writers (not including CMV) shows that only 34.1% are Bullish which is the lowest since March, 2009, when the Bear market rally began. You may recall that CMV postulated in the January CMV newsletter that there could be a correction of 10% to 20%. Through February the correction is less than 1.0% Here is a quick insight into some of the Bearish soothsayers:
-- Meredith Whitney, who was one of the first analysts to call the sub-prime crash was Bullish until the end of 2009. In an interview with Maria Bartiromo recently on CNBC, she turned Bearish. Reason? The banks are under-capitalized.
-- Doug Fabian is a big Bear booster. He says this market rally is a "Bear Trap" much like the 1930 rally of 48%
-- Paul Farrell of Market Watch has listed 20 reasons why the market will fail in 2012. (CMV believes that there could be a significant rally in the ensuing two years also ending around that time.)
-- Bloomberg is forecasting a "great reckoning" in the US economy, meaning deflation.
-- Forbes believes that, in a short period of time, the total Federal Debt will equal 90% of GDP and the US economy will arrive at the "tipping point."
And, the Bearish beat goes on.
Late 2009 when the soothsayers were 90% Bearish on the US dollar and calling for its' demise, CMV (through its alter-ego The Myth Buster) took the Contrarian View and forecast a Rally in the dollar. Sure enough, much to the surprise and chagrin of the Bears, too many of them crowded together on to the same side of the ship and it capsized. What does this have to do with the stock market? When the Bears become the majority here, it will be time for the stock market to continue its rally that began in March, 2009. It appears that we're close to that point.
What's Bullish to CMV? Look at recent reported earnings:
-- Sears reported quarterly earnings of $430 million, up double from last year.
-- Target reported quarterly earnings of $936 million, up 54% over the same period last year.
-- Priceline earnings doubled and expect bookings to rise 48% in 2010.
-- Whole Foods earnings jumped 71% over last year.
What do these companies have in common? They all represent consumer spending and specifically to lower demographic groups.
It has been reported that over 80% of the S&P 500 companies have earnings in excess of estimates. Namely:
-- John Deere - earnings up 19% in the first quarter of FY 2010, and they're re-hiring workers.
-- Caterpillar also reported robust earnings and they're re-hiring 600 employees in the next 60 days.
-- Edmonds Shoe Corp. is also calling back laid off employees.
-- H-P reported a 25% increase in earnings and forecast an increase in sales of 26% in 2010.
What we have here, in CMV's opinion, is a massive disconnect between the Bullish indicators of business (specifically large corporations) and the consumer versus the Bearish outlook of the banking and government sectors. The question we all want answered is, will the economy continue to improve (as evidenced above) DESPITE the burgeoning Federal Debt and the incompetency and divisiveness in our political system? Most Bears see the out of control Federal Debt and deficits as the Sword of Damocles that will come crashing down to cut off the lifeblood to our Capitalistic system. Will Keynesianism succeed? Stay tuned and informed.
Leadership?
In February, the President signed an executive order creating a Bi-Partisan National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform. How absurd is that ... when the President's own budget proposal estimates that deficits will total $8.5 trillion over the next 10 years? According to the Wall St. Journal (WSJ) what the President is really trying to accomplish is "political cover" for huge tax increases scheduled for after the mid-term elections. The WSJ says this charade should be called the VAT (Value Added Tax) Commission because that will probably be the recommendation.
Representative Scott Garrett, (R, NJ) has introduced a bill titled the Accurate Accounting of Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac Act which would require an accurate accounting to taxpayers as to the total liability of these two mortgage giants now under control of the US Treasury. The massive losses that the "evil twins" plus the $1.6 trillion of their corporate debt are presently not included as taxpayer debt and, are in Washington terms, ‘off-balance-sheet' items. As CMV has reported on several occasions, losses will continue to mount, FNM and FRE executives will continue to receive outlandish bonuses and taxpayers will never know the true liabilities. In the end, our political leaders will bury the loss along with the twins. That's real "leadership."
In CMV's opinion, there is no other corporate market leader that was contributed more to the real estate debacle and the resultant financial collapse of the US economy than Goldman Sucks. Now we've learned that Goldman played a significant role in Greece's potential default on its sovereign debt! These Masters of the Universe (for humongous fees and commissions) advised the Greeks how to hide their ballooning debt off-balance-sheet — for a number of years until two weeks ago. Now the Grecians are rioting and storming the stock exchange and government offices to rally against budge cuts. Shouldn't they direct some of their ire to the true architects of this global chaos? (As CMV goes to press the Federal Reserve is opening an investigation into Goldman's involvement in Greece. Rots of ruck!)
For those of you who remain partisan, it's the call for change in all Leadership that is the mantra of the Tea Parties. These are former Democrats, Republicans and Independents that have got it figured out. And, this is the critical point: Inflation and its' big brother hyper-inflation are a direct result of loss of confidence in leadership and the value of the country's currency. This massive mountain of debt coupled with the change in public sentiment are the roots of the ‘flations.
. . .
The above is a partial preview of the March CMV Newsletter. To get all the information including the recommended portfolio, AND receive a copy of "Greed" and "Profit" subscribe today - click here.
-- H. L. Quist
Monday, March 1, 2010
H L Quist to be Featured Speaker at Northwest Valley Tea Party
Hello World,
H L Quist will be the featured speaker at the Northwest Valley Tea Party, Wednesday March 3, 2010. The meeting starts at 6:30 p.m.
RSVP required to: 623-340-8091, a $10 voluntary donation is requested to cover the cost of the meeting room.
H L will talk on his insight into today's economy, and strategies to deal with the prospect of hyper-inflation.
Talisman Hall
Sun City Recreation Center
10433 West Talisman Road
Sun City, Arizona 85351
http://phoenixteaparty.ning.com/events/nortwest-valley-tea-party
Mapquest of location: http://bit.ly/blRZTG
-- H L Quist
H L Quist will be the featured speaker at the Northwest Valley Tea Party, Wednesday March 3, 2010. The meeting starts at 6:30 p.m.
RSVP required to: 623-340-8091, a $10 voluntary donation is requested to cover the cost of the meeting room.
H L will talk on his insight into today's economy, and strategies to deal with the prospect of hyper-inflation.
Talisman Hall
Sun City Recreation Center
10433 West Talisman Road
Sun City, Arizona 85351
http://phoenixteaparty.ning.com/events/nortwest-valley-tea-party
Mapquest of location: http://bit.ly/blRZTG
-- H L Quist
Thursday, December 3, 2009
MACRO CHANGE! The Myth is: Keynesian Economics will succeed in the Obama Presidency
Hello World,
MACRO CHANGE! The Myth is: Keynesian Economics will succeed in the Obama Presidency
Economic Myths can persist for many years and undeservedly some become truth. The Myth Buster and time has debunked many of them. Like:
"What is good for General Motors is good for the Country," or
"The Federal Reserve is independent," and
"The US dollar is as good as gold."
You get the drift. But, there is one persistent economic myth that has survived for over 70 years and has resurfaced (for the umpteenth time) as the solution to America's and the world's financial dilemma created by the abuse of power by capitalists and Wall St. greed.
That myth is the Keynesian Theory of Economics.
A short history is in order and is taken from a research paper "Keynes at Harvard, Economic Deception as a Political Credo," compiled by the Trustees of the Veritas Foundation. The Trustees were all graduates of Harvard and it was published in 1962 in an attempt to prevent the Economics Department at Harvard from being dominated by Keynesian radical socialists. Unfortunately, the Trustees failed in their mission but their research is even more valuable and appropriate today. Veritas in Latin means truth.
John Maynard Keynes (JMK) was born in England in 1883 and was the son of a Cambridge professor who, when Keynes was seven years old, wrote a book attacking the principles of Laissez-Faire (government should not interfere with business and commerce) and the free enterprise system. Greatly influenced by his father JMK, "banded together with a group of radicals who were destined to become the outstanding socialist leaders of Great Britain." (Page 43 of "Keynes at Harvard"). At age 20 JMK became a member of the Fabian Socialists at Cambridge. Despite his ideological disdain of profits for individual gain, JMK built up a sizable fortune of 500,000 pounds ($2.5 million) by 1937, which reveals the hypocrisy of the man and his comrades who railed against capitalism and personal wealth.
Despite the fact that JMK visited the US in 1931 and met with officials at the Federal Reserve and President Herbert Hoover, it wasn't until he published "The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money" in 1936 that his reputation grew throughout the world. With the Great Depression impacting all corners of the globe JMK's theory was immediately heralded (in desperation) as a panacea but in reality it opened pandora's box. Franklin D. Roosevelt "blessed" JMK's theory on the basis that "Socialism would save Capitalism."
What were the basic tenets of Keynesianism?
-- Capitalists are the cause of business cycles and unemployment and the primary villains are the money-lenders.
-- Capitalism should be regulated and controlled by a central authority. The US Constitution should be scraped so as not to interfere with government.
-- The economy can be controlled by variations of the rate of interest, budgetary deficits and surpluses, public works and a redistribution of personal incomes in the egalitarian direction.
-- A scientific facade is necessary to create the illusion of modern progressivism. (Think global warming.)
-- Large scale deficit financing by government is necessary during recessions to achieve full employment.
Roosevelt as well as Stalin, Hitler and Mussolini all drank JMK's Kool-Aid. FDR's New Deal cocktail was spiked with sugar Keynes. What most readers will not know or recall is that despite all the stimulus provided by the New Deal, the US economy fell into a deeper recession in 1937 and 1938. On May 9, 1939 Henry Morgenthau, FDR's Secretary of the Treasury wrote:
"We have tried spending money. We have spent more than we ever had before and it does not work...After eight years of this administration we have just as much unemployment as when we started...and an enormous debt to boot!"
That says it all. America's version of Keynesianism did not work. World War II ended the Great Depression. And, that could happen again. When Obamanomics fails, start a war. (Think Iran.) Keynesianism was not economic theory, it was political ideology!
JMK died in April 1946 but his ideology was re-ignited in the 1960s by Lyndon Johnson and his "Great Society." It converted Richard Nixon and lead to the disastrous inflation during the Presidency of Jimmy Carter (1976-1980) when the Consumer Price Index (CPI) reached 13%, the prime rate topped out at 21.5% and residential mortgage rates peaked at 17%. Milton Friedman, one of America's foremost economists, originally supported JMK's theory in the New Deal era, but in the 50s he reversed his position and challenged the premise that government could manage the economy. Friedman forecast the "Stagflation" that did occur in the Carter era. Friedman's theory of Monetarism and unabashed belief in Laissez-Faire and free enterprise greatly influenced Ronald Regan. It is interesting to note that in Friedman's last interview in 2006, he forecast that Islamofacism would be the greatest threat to the free world. If Friedman were alive today, he would surely add Obamanomics and the rebirth of Keynesianism as a threat to America.
All this history could be a prelude to what is ahead given President Obama's acceptance of JMK's theory of governance and deficit spending. Within the next 12 months, the US Treasury will have to refinance $2 trillion in short-term debt plus approximately an additional $1.5 trillion in deficit spending. Where in the world will the Treasury be able to borrow $3.5 trillion in one year when the last T-Bills were at a negative rate? That's equal to approximately 30% of the Nation's GDP! The Greenspan-Guidotti Rule states that any country should maintain hard currency reserves equal to at least 100% of their short-term debt. The US has only about $500 billion in reserves. The bottom line? The US is headed for a default on its sovereign debt. Massive amounts of public and private debt will never be paid. When? No one knows.
In The Myth Buster's book "How To Profit From The Coming Inflationary Boom and Avoid the Next Crash", he said:
"One of John Maynard Keynes' most oft repeated line's was, ‘In the long run, we are all dead.' Meaning — don't be concerned about the aftermath of massive deficits — we'll all be dead when the problems arise. Advocating and utilizing his theory today will ultimately lead to monster inflation and quite possibly hyperinflation and a "crack-up boom." Maybe then, we will be able to bury Keynes forever."
The problem is that in the end we'll all be alive and our children and grandchildren will be burdened by the myth that deficits don't matter. Our President and Congress took "intellectual cover" in Keynesianism as sound economic policy. If they had read history they would have discovered that Keynes and his theory were a fraud.
-- H. L. Quist
Sign up for my very special monthly newsletter "H. L. Quist's Contrarian Market View".
This is the service many of you have been asking me for.
I have decided to come out of retirement, as a result of many factors, including requests for my services in Asset Management. In addition to private consultation, I am offering a private Internet newsletter, which will provide you with specific investment recommendations and also special alerts as needed. This newsletter will be sent about once a month, or as needed, and will cost $9.95/month or $99/year payable in advance.
The first issue will be sent out the first week in January, 2010. Expect the first newsletter to provide you an important market forecast for the year.
Click here to subscribe for a year (about 20% off the monthly cost) $99/year.
Or click here to sign up on a month-by-month basis $9.95/month.
You must provide your preferred screen name to receive the newsletter and also the initial 'invitation' to join this private group (it is provided through a yahoo-group feature, closed to the public).
I am now associated with DJM Wealth Strategies, LLC - an announcement letter will be sent out shortly. -- H. L. Quist
MACRO CHANGE! The Myth is: Keynesian Economics will succeed in the Obama Presidency
Economic Myths can persist for many years and undeservedly some become truth. The Myth Buster and time has debunked many of them. Like:
"What is good for General Motors is good for the Country," or
"The Federal Reserve is independent," and
"The US dollar is as good as gold."
You get the drift. But, there is one persistent economic myth that has survived for over 70 years and has resurfaced (for the umpteenth time) as the solution to America's and the world's financial dilemma created by the abuse of power by capitalists and Wall St. greed.
That myth is the Keynesian Theory of Economics.
A short history is in order and is taken from a research paper "Keynes at Harvard, Economic Deception as a Political Credo," compiled by the Trustees of the Veritas Foundation. The Trustees were all graduates of Harvard and it was published in 1962 in an attempt to prevent the Economics Department at Harvard from being dominated by Keynesian radical socialists. Unfortunately, the Trustees failed in their mission but their research is even more valuable and appropriate today. Veritas in Latin means truth.
John Maynard Keynes (JMK) was born in England in 1883 and was the son of a Cambridge professor who, when Keynes was seven years old, wrote a book attacking the principles of Laissez-Faire (government should not interfere with business and commerce) and the free enterprise system. Greatly influenced by his father JMK, "banded together with a group of radicals who were destined to become the outstanding socialist leaders of Great Britain." (Page 43 of "Keynes at Harvard"). At age 20 JMK became a member of the Fabian Socialists at Cambridge. Despite his ideological disdain of profits for individual gain, JMK built up a sizable fortune of 500,000 pounds ($2.5 million) by 1937, which reveals the hypocrisy of the man and his comrades who railed against capitalism and personal wealth.
Despite the fact that JMK visited the US in 1931 and met with officials at the Federal Reserve and President Herbert Hoover, it wasn't until he published "The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money" in 1936 that his reputation grew throughout the world. With the Great Depression impacting all corners of the globe JMK's theory was immediately heralded (in desperation) as a panacea but in reality it opened pandora's box. Franklin D. Roosevelt "blessed" JMK's theory on the basis that "Socialism would save Capitalism."
What were the basic tenets of Keynesianism?
-- Capitalists are the cause of business cycles and unemployment and the primary villains are the money-lenders.
-- Capitalism should be regulated and controlled by a central authority. The US Constitution should be scraped so as not to interfere with government.
-- The economy can be controlled by variations of the rate of interest, budgetary deficits and surpluses, public works and a redistribution of personal incomes in the egalitarian direction.
-- A scientific facade is necessary to create the illusion of modern progressivism. (Think global warming.)
-- Large scale deficit financing by government is necessary during recessions to achieve full employment.
Roosevelt as well as Stalin, Hitler and Mussolini all drank JMK's Kool-Aid. FDR's New Deal cocktail was spiked with sugar Keynes. What most readers will not know or recall is that despite all the stimulus provided by the New Deal, the US economy fell into a deeper recession in 1937 and 1938. On May 9, 1939 Henry Morgenthau, FDR's Secretary of the Treasury wrote:
"We have tried spending money. We have spent more than we ever had before and it does not work...After eight years of this administration we have just as much unemployment as when we started...and an enormous debt to boot!"
That says it all. America's version of Keynesianism did not work. World War II ended the Great Depression. And, that could happen again. When Obamanomics fails, start a war. (Think Iran.) Keynesianism was not economic theory, it was political ideology!
JMK died in April 1946 but his ideology was re-ignited in the 1960s by Lyndon Johnson and his "Great Society." It converted Richard Nixon and lead to the disastrous inflation during the Presidency of Jimmy Carter (1976-1980) when the Consumer Price Index (CPI) reached 13%, the prime rate topped out at 21.5% and residential mortgage rates peaked at 17%. Milton Friedman, one of America's foremost economists, originally supported JMK's theory in the New Deal era, but in the 50s he reversed his position and challenged the premise that government could manage the economy. Friedman forecast the "Stagflation" that did occur in the Carter era. Friedman's theory of Monetarism and unabashed belief in Laissez-Faire and free enterprise greatly influenced Ronald Regan. It is interesting to note that in Friedman's last interview in 2006, he forecast that Islamofacism would be the greatest threat to the free world. If Friedman were alive today, he would surely add Obamanomics and the rebirth of Keynesianism as a threat to America.
All this history could be a prelude to what is ahead given President Obama's acceptance of JMK's theory of governance and deficit spending. Within the next 12 months, the US Treasury will have to refinance $2 trillion in short-term debt plus approximately an additional $1.5 trillion in deficit spending. Where in the world will the Treasury be able to borrow $3.5 trillion in one year when the last T-Bills were at a negative rate? That's equal to approximately 30% of the Nation's GDP! The Greenspan-Guidotti Rule states that any country should maintain hard currency reserves equal to at least 100% of their short-term debt. The US has only about $500 billion in reserves. The bottom line? The US is headed for a default on its sovereign debt. Massive amounts of public and private debt will never be paid. When? No one knows.
In The Myth Buster's book "How To Profit From The Coming Inflationary Boom and Avoid the Next Crash", he said:
"One of John Maynard Keynes' most oft repeated line's was, ‘In the long run, we are all dead.' Meaning — don't be concerned about the aftermath of massive deficits — we'll all be dead when the problems arise. Advocating and utilizing his theory today will ultimately lead to monster inflation and quite possibly hyperinflation and a "crack-up boom." Maybe then, we will be able to bury Keynes forever."
The problem is that in the end we'll all be alive and our children and grandchildren will be burdened by the myth that deficits don't matter. Our President and Congress took "intellectual cover" in Keynesianism as sound economic policy. If they had read history they would have discovered that Keynes and his theory were a fraud.
-- H. L. Quist
Sign up for my very special monthly newsletter "H. L. Quist's Contrarian Market View".
This is the service many of you have been asking me for.
I have decided to come out of retirement, as a result of many factors, including requests for my services in Asset Management. In addition to private consultation, I am offering a private Internet newsletter, which will provide you with specific investment recommendations and also special alerts as needed. This newsletter will be sent about once a month, or as needed, and will cost $9.95/month or $99/year payable in advance.
The first issue will be sent out the first week in January, 2010. Expect the first newsletter to provide you an important market forecast for the year.
Click here to subscribe for a year (about 20% off the monthly cost) $99/year.
Or click here to sign up on a month-by-month basis $9.95/month.
You must provide your preferred screen name to receive the newsletter and also the initial 'invitation' to join this private group (it is provided through a yahoo-group feature, closed to the public).
I am now associated with DJM Wealth Strategies, LLC - an announcement letter will be sent out shortly. -- H. L. Quist
Saturday, August 8, 2009
What A Banker Says About "Profit"
Hello World,
I received the following comment on my book How To Profit From The Coming Inflationary Boom And Avoid The Next Crash from Vic Currier, and wanted to share it with you.
"With Buster, your politics don't matter. Only prudent investing - expressed in his layman's language - matters. I lost by not acting quickly on his sage advice. Now, I'll be following him to the letter. I recommend you do the same. Keep him close. He is a true visionary and you will "Profit" by doing so."
Vic Currier is a retired federal savings bank board member/executive and real estate entrepreneur in California, Arizona and New Mexico.
You can purchase PROFIT as a print copy or download at my publishers page here.
Coming soon my podcast radio show "H L Quist - The Myth Buster"
-- H. L. Quist
I received the following comment on my book How To Profit From The Coming Inflationary Boom And Avoid The Next Crash from Vic Currier, and wanted to share it with you.
"With Buster, your politics don't matter. Only prudent investing - expressed in his layman's language - matters. I lost by not acting quickly on his sage advice. Now, I'll be following him to the letter. I recommend you do the same. Keep him close. He is a true visionary and you will "Profit" by doing so."
Vic Currier is a retired federal savings bank board member/executive and real estate entrepreneur in California, Arizona and New Mexico.
You can purchase PROFIT as a print copy or download at my publishers page here.
Coming soon my podcast radio show "H L Quist - The Myth Buster"
-- H. L. Quist
Tuesday, February 3, 2009
H. L. Quist Interview via London
Hello World,
Last week I was a guest on "Above Politics" radio out of London, UK. Click here to listen to my conversation with Host Martin Bain.
-- H. L. Quist
Last week I was a guest on "Above Politics" radio out of London, UK. Click here to listen to my conversation with Host Martin Bain.
-- H. L. Quist
Wednesday, January 7, 2009
H. L. Quist on Financial Lifeline Radio
Hello World,
My guest appearance, yesterday, on Financial Lifeline Radio was an excellent opportunity to discuss with the show hosts Dave Harbison and John March our mutual concerns about the current economic environment and my views of the opportunities you as an investor have before you. The show archives remain 'live' for two weeks.
Click here to listen
If you have problems with the above link, go to the main archive page here, and scroll down to my segment to listen or download the program.
And, don't forget to check my own radio show "The Myth Buster" by clicking on the microphone in the sidebar, for the current show archive.
Forward this blog to family, friends and co-workers for my updates on the economy and opportunities.
-- H. L. Quist
My guest appearance, yesterday, on Financial Lifeline Radio was an excellent opportunity to discuss with the show hosts Dave Harbison and John March our mutual concerns about the current economic environment and my views of the opportunities you as an investor have before you. The show archives remain 'live' for two weeks.
Click here to listen
If you have problems with the above link, go to the main archive page here, and scroll down to my segment to listen or download the program.
And, don't forget to check my own radio show "The Myth Buster" by clicking on the microphone in the sidebar, for the current show archive.
Forward this blog to family, friends and co-workers for my updates on the economy and opportunities.
-- H. L. Quist
Wednesday, December 24, 2008
H. L. Quist on Dresser After Dark Radio Show
Hello World,
Recently I was a guest on the Michael Ray Dresser "Dresser After Dark" talk radio via lifestyles streaming radio and had a chance to discuss my perceptions of the current economic climate.
Listen to the program where I am the first guest on this segment.
Click here
-- H. L. Quist
Pass this on to your friends and family and suggest they subscribe to this blog for regular updates on my views of current economic issues facing America.
Recently I was a guest on the Michael Ray Dresser "Dresser After Dark" talk radio via lifestyles streaming radio and had a chance to discuss my perceptions of the current economic climate.
Listen to the program where I am the first guest on this segment.
Click here
-- H. L. Quist
Pass this on to your friends and family and suggest they subscribe to this blog for regular updates on my views of current economic issues facing America.
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